I sometimes update in favor of a controversial claim when I see a smart opponent of that claim put forth their best argument against it, and the argument just isn’t that good.
I’m not sure which parts of the essay are supposed to be more convincing than others, so I made a standing offer on HN to argue against any individual point.
FWIW, I hardly updated my views about the future at all—but I did update my views about Charles Stross—and it enlarged my list of strange things people actually think about intelligent machines a little.
I sometimes update in favor of a controversial claim when I see a smart opponent of that claim put forth their best argument against it, and the argument just isn’t that good.
I’m not sure which parts of the essay are supposed to be more convincing than others, so I made a standing offer on HN to argue against any individual point.
FWIW, I hardly updated my views about the future at all—but I did update my views about Charles Stross—and it enlarged my list of strange things people actually think about intelligent machines a little.
As you should, otherwise you could never update the other way.
But he’s not addressing issues with getting from here to superhuman intelligence, just with its theoretical possibility.