I’m more surprised to learn Vance played MTG than to learn he knows ZVI
This doesn’t make a ton of sense to me. You think it’s more likely that JD knows Zvi but didn’t play magic than played magic but doesn’t know Zvi?
This would have been my expectation, from most likely to least likely:
Doesn’t know Zvi, didn’t play magic
Knows Zvi, didn’t play magic
Knows Zvi, played magic
Doesn’t know Zvi, played magic
I expect we differ only on the ordering of the middle two
I would put “Doesn’t know Zvi, played magic” at number two. I think you might be overestimating either how well known Zvi is or how likely one would be to know Zvi conditional on playing magic in the late nineties/early 2000s.
base rates, man, base rates.
Yeah, with all due respect, more people play Magic than know Zvi. (Outside of LessWrong.)
I’m more surprised to learn Vance played MTG than to learn he knows ZVI
This doesn’t make a ton of sense to me. You think it’s more likely that JD knows Zvi but didn’t play magic than played magic but doesn’t know Zvi?
This would have been my expectation, from most likely to least likely:
Doesn’t know Zvi, didn’t play magic
Knows Zvi, didn’t play magic
Knows Zvi, played magic
Doesn’t know Zvi, played magic
I expect we differ only on the ordering of the middle two
I would put “Doesn’t know Zvi, played magic” at number two. I think you might be overestimating either how well known Zvi is or how likely one would be to know Zvi conditional on playing magic in the late nineties/early 2000s.
base rates, man, base rates.
Yeah, with all due respect, more people play Magic than know Zvi. (Outside of LessWrong.)