This would have been my expectation, from most likely to least likely:
Doesn’t know Zvi, didn’t play magic
Knows Zvi, didn’t play magic
Knows Zvi, played magic
Doesn’t know Zvi, played magic
I expect we differ only on the ordering of the middle two
I would put “Doesn’t know Zvi, played magic” at number two. I think you might be overestimating either how well known Zvi is or how likely one would be to know Zvi conditional on playing magic in the late nineties/early 2000s.
This would have been my expectation, from most likely to least likely:
Doesn’t know Zvi, didn’t play magic
Knows Zvi, didn’t play magic
Knows Zvi, played magic
Doesn’t know Zvi, played magic
I expect we differ only on the ordering of the middle two
I would put “Doesn’t know Zvi, played magic” at number two. I think you might be overestimating either how well known Zvi is or how likely one would be to know Zvi conditional on playing magic in the late nineties/early 2000s.