One approach that feels a bit more direct is investing in semiconductor stocks. If we expect AGI to be a big deal and massively economically relevant, it seems likely that this will involve vast amounts of compute, and thus need a lot of computer chips. I believe ASML (Netherlands based) and TSMC (Taiwan based) are two of the largest semiconductor manufacturers and are publicly traded, though I’m unsure which countries let you easily invest in them.
Problems with this:
A bunch of their current business comes from crypto-mining, so this also has some crypto exposure. The stocks have done well over the last few years, and I believe this is mostly from the crypto boom than the AI boom
TSMC is based in Taiwan, and thus is exposed to Taiwan-China problems
This assumes AGI will require a lot of compute (which I personally believe, but YMMV)
It’s unclear how much of the value of AGI will be captured by semiconductor manufacturers
This is particular problematic given the scenario of a switch away from proof of work to proof of stake, which might happen in 1-2 years and tank crypto-mining completely.
which might happen in 1-2 years and tank crypto-mining completely.
Good point. But that would be a much better time to buy in for long-term value.
One approach that feels a bit more direct is investing in semiconductor stocks.
I agree with this and the above points.
One way to potentially overcome the issues with TSMC might be to supplement the investment by buying into commodities like silicon and coltan. This is still not guaranteed to capture most of the value, but might be a method of diversification. But there are many ethical considerations (particularly with coltan).