https://metaculus.medium.com/aligning-incentives-for-forecast-accuracy-relevance-and-efficacy-a-new-paradigm-for-metaculus-26b0e79616cb
OK, so if I understand this correctly, the proposed method is:
For each question, determine the log score, i.e. the natural logarithm of the probability that was assigned to the outcome that ended up happening.
Find the total score for each contestant.
For each contestant, find e to the power of his/her total score.
Distribute the prize to each contestant in a fraction proportional to that person’s share in the sum of that number across all contestants.
(Edit: I suppose it’s simpler to just multiply all of each contestant’s probabilities together, and distribute the award proportional to that result.)
yes
https://metaculus.medium.com/aligning-incentives-for-forecast-accuracy-relevance-and-efficacy-a-new-paradigm-for-metaculus-26b0e79616cb
OK, so if I understand this correctly, the proposed method is:
For each question, determine the log score, i.e. the natural logarithm of the probability that was assigned to the outcome that ended up happening.
Find the total score for each contestant.
For each contestant, find e to the power of his/her total score.
Distribute the prize to each contestant in a fraction proportional to that person’s share in the sum of that number across all contestants.
(Edit: I suppose it’s simpler to just multiply all of each contestant’s probabilities together, and distribute the award proportional to that result.)
yes