Every single corporation in the world is trying to adopt AI into their products. Even extremely slow-moving industries are rushing to adopt AI.
is about attempts to adopt, not lasting adoption. Of course, we can’t make “lasting adoption” mean “adopted for 5 years” if we’re trying to evaluate the prediction right now. But are you saying that there’s lots of adoption that seems probably/plausibly lasting, just by eyeballing it? My vague is impression is no, but I’m curious if the answer is yes or somewhat.
(TBC I don’t have a particularly strong prediction or retrodiction about adoption of AI in general in industry, or LLMs specifically (which is what I think Marcus’s predictions are about). At a guess I’d expect robotics to continue steadily rising in applications; I’d expect LLM use in lots of “grunt information work” contexts; and some niche strong applications like language learning; but not sure what else to expect.)
I interpreted the statement to mean, “modest, lasting, adoption”. I.e. we will see modest adoption, which will be lasting. It’s plausible Gary meant “modest-lasting adoption” in which case I think there is a better case to be made!
I still think that case is weak, but of course it’s very hard to evaluate at the end of a year, because how do we know if the adoption is lasting. It seems fine to evaluate that in a year or two and see whether the adoptions that happened in 2024 were lasting. I don’t see any way to call that interpretation already, at least given the current state of evidence.
Well, like, if a company tried out some new robotics thing in one warehouse at a small scale in Q1, then in Q2 and Q3 scaled it up to most of that warehouse, and then in Q4 started work applying the same thing in another warehouse, and announced plans to apply to many warehouses, I think it’d be pretty fair to call this lasting adoption (of robotics, not LLMs, unless the robots use LLMs). On the other hand if they were stuck at the “small scale work trying to make a maybe-scalable PoC”, that doesn’t seem like lasting adoption, yet.
Judging this sort of thing would be a whole bunch of work, but it seems possible to do. (Of course, we can just wait.)
Agree, though I think, in the world we are in, we don’t happen to have that kind of convenient measurement, or at least not unambiguous ones. I might be wrong, people have come up with clever methodologies to measure things like this in the past that compelled me, but I don’t have an obvious dataset or context in mind where you could get a good answer (but also, to be clear, I haven’t thought that much about it).
Echoing robo’s comment:
Has there been such adoption? Your remark
is about attempts to adopt, not lasting adoption. Of course, we can’t make “lasting adoption” mean “adopted for 5 years” if we’re trying to evaluate the prediction right now. But are you saying that there’s lots of adoption that seems probably/plausibly lasting, just by eyeballing it? My vague is impression is no, but I’m curious if the answer is yes or somewhat.
(TBC I don’t have a particularly strong prediction or retrodiction about adoption of AI in general in industry, or LLMs specifically (which is what I think Marcus’s predictions are about). At a guess I’d expect robotics to continue steadily rising in applications; I’d expect LLM use in lots of “grunt information work” contexts; and some niche strong applications like language learning; but not sure what else to expect.)
I interpreted the statement to mean, “modest, lasting, adoption”. I.e. we will see modest adoption, which will be lasting. It’s plausible Gary meant “modest-lasting adoption” in which case I think there is a better case to be made!
I still think that case is weak, but of course it’s very hard to evaluate at the end of a year, because how do we know if the adoption is lasting. It seems fine to evaluate that in a year or two and see whether the adoptions that happened in 2024 were lasting. I don’t see any way to call that interpretation already, at least given the current state of evidence.
Well, like, if a company tried out some new robotics thing in one warehouse at a small scale in Q1, then in Q2 and Q3 scaled it up to most of that warehouse, and then in Q4 started work applying the same thing in another warehouse, and announced plans to apply to many warehouses, I think it’d be pretty fair to call this lasting adoption (of robotics, not LLMs, unless the robots use LLMs). On the other hand if they were stuck at the “small scale work trying to make a maybe-scalable PoC”, that doesn’t seem like lasting adoption, yet.
Judging this sort of thing would be a whole bunch of work, but it seems possible to do. (Of course, we can just wait.)
Agree, though I think, in the world we are in, we don’t happen to have that kind of convenient measurement, or at least not unambiguous ones. I might be wrong, people have come up with clever methodologies to measure things like this in the past that compelled me, but I don’t have an obvious dataset or context in mind where you could get a good answer (but also, to be clear, I haven’t thought that much about it).