I interpreted the statement to mean, “modest, lasting, adoption”. I.e. we will see modest adoption, which will be lasting. It’s plausible Gary meant “modest-lasting adoption” in which case I think there is a better case to be made!
I still think that case is weak, but of course it’s very hard to evaluate at the end of a year, because how do we know if the adoption is lasting. It seems fine to evaluate that in a year or two and see whether the adoptions that happened in 2024 were lasting. I don’t see any way to call that interpretation already, at least given the current state of evidence.
Well, like, if a company tried out some new robotics thing in one warehouse at a small scale in Q1, then in Q2 and Q3 scaled it up to most of that warehouse, and then in Q4 started work applying the same thing in another warehouse, and announced plans to apply to many warehouses, I think it’d be pretty fair to call this lasting adoption (of robotics, not LLMs, unless the robots use LLMs). On the other hand if they were stuck at the “small scale work trying to make a maybe-scalable PoC”, that doesn’t seem like lasting adoption, yet.
Judging this sort of thing would be a whole bunch of work, but it seems possible to do. (Of course, we can just wait.)
Agree, though I think, in the world we are in, we don’t happen to have that kind of convenient measurement, or at least not unambiguous ones. I might be wrong, people have come up with clever methodologies to measure things like this in the past that compelled me, but I don’t have an obvious dataset or context in mind where you could get a good answer (but also, to be clear, I haven’t thought that much about it).
I interpreted the statement to mean, “modest, lasting, adoption”. I.e. we will see modest adoption, which will be lasting. It’s plausible Gary meant “modest-lasting adoption” in which case I think there is a better case to be made!
I still think that case is weak, but of course it’s very hard to evaluate at the end of a year, because how do we know if the adoption is lasting. It seems fine to evaluate that in a year or two and see whether the adoptions that happened in 2024 were lasting. I don’t see any way to call that interpretation already, at least given the current state of evidence.
Well, like, if a company tried out some new robotics thing in one warehouse at a small scale in Q1, then in Q2 and Q3 scaled it up to most of that warehouse, and then in Q4 started work applying the same thing in another warehouse, and announced plans to apply to many warehouses, I think it’d be pretty fair to call this lasting adoption (of robotics, not LLMs, unless the robots use LLMs). On the other hand if they were stuck at the “small scale work trying to make a maybe-scalable PoC”, that doesn’t seem like lasting adoption, yet.
Judging this sort of thing would be a whole bunch of work, but it seems possible to do. (Of course, we can just wait.)
Agree, though I think, in the world we are in, we don’t happen to have that kind of convenient measurement, or at least not unambiguous ones. I might be wrong, people have come up with clever methodologies to measure things like this in the past that compelled me, but I don’t have an obvious dataset or context in mind where you could get a good answer (but also, to be clear, I haven’t thought that much about it).