This feature is important to me. It might turn out to be a dud, but I would be excited to experiment with it. If it was available in a way that was portable to other websites as well, that would be even more exciting to me (e.g. I could do this in my base blog).
Note that this feature can be used for more than forecasting. One key use case on Arbital was to see who was willing to endorse or disagree with, to what extent, various claims relevant to the post. That seemed very useful.
I don’t think having internal betting markets is going to add enough value to justify the costs involved. Especially since it both can’t be real money (for legal reasons, etc) and can’t not be real money if it’s going to do what it needs to do.
There are some external platforms that one could integrate with, here is one that is run by some EA-adjacent people: https://www.empiricast.com/
I am currently confused about whether using an external service is a good idea. In some sense it makes things mode modular, but it also limits the UI design-space a lot and lengthens the feedback loop. I think I am currently tending towards rolling our own solution and maybe allowing others to integrate it into their site.
This feature is important to me. It might turn out to be a dud, but I would be excited to experiment with it. If it was available in a way that was portable to other websites as well, that would be even more exciting to me (e.g. I could do this in my base blog).
Note that this feature can be used for more than forecasting. One key use case on Arbital was to see who was willing to endorse or disagree with, to what extent, various claims relevant to the post. That seemed very useful.
I don’t think having internal betting markets is going to add enough value to justify the costs involved. Especially since it both can’t be real money (for legal reasons, etc) and can’t not be real money if it’s going to do what it needs to do.
There are some external platforms that one could integrate with, here is one that is run by some EA-adjacent people: https://www.empiricast.com/
I am currently confused about whether using an external service is a good idea. In some sense it makes things mode modular, but it also limits the UI design-space a lot and lengthens the feedback loop. I think I am currently tending towards rolling our own solution and maybe allowing others to integrate it into their site.