The burden of proof is still (by the Crawford Standard) on you to demonstrate that Steocker’s vaccine was “easy to scale up.” I agree with you in my OP that regulation and ineffective governance are partly to blame for production delays. What’s in question is the proportion of the blame.
Yes, even small delays are highly consequential in an exponential growth scenario. But determining the proportion of delay due to governance vs. inevitable pratical issues is the question at hand. The point of this post is that to determine the delay due to governance, you need to thoroughly assess the delay due to practicalities, and also investigate that there are other issues beyond these two categories. Simply naming yet more examples of governance failures doesn’t really help address this.
The burden of proof is still (by the Crawford Standard) on you to demonstrate that Steocker’s vaccine was “easy to scale up.”
The argument here is that a biotech billionaire is likely able to know what can be achieved in a 3-month timeframe with his technology.
But lets look at his description:
Man nehme dreimal 15 Mikrogramm rekombinante RBD der S1-Untereinheit (Arg319-Phe541) für eine Person. Als Adiuvans habe ich Alhydrogel von InvivoGen verwendet: Ordentlich durchschütteln und davon 200 Mikroliter mit der Tuberkulinspritze aufziehen. In eine größere Spritze 10 Milliliter Kochsalz aufziehen und die 200 Mikroliter dazugeben, mischen. Davon 500 Mikroliter pro Schuss, mit denen man seine Portion Antigen vermischt. Alles hübsch steril.
Mit einem einzigen 2000-Liter-Reaktor kann man 45 g Antigen pro Tag produzieren, das würde für 1 Million Personen reichen. Mittels eines Hochdichte-Kultursystems schafft man die fünffache Menge. Innerhalb eines halben Jahres könnte man Impfstoff für 80% der Bevölkerung Deutschlands in einem mittelgroßen Laborraum produzieren.
Kochsalz is salt or NaCl which is easily available in very large quantities.
The antigen production seems to require a 2000-liter reactor for producing enough for 1 million people per day and he suggests that more advanced technology can do 5 times as much in a middle sized labatory room, so that doesn’t seem to be a constraint.
That leaves the Alhydrogel of InvivoGen. Current cost seems to be 248,00 € for 250ml which is a bit more then what you need for 1000 dosis. That leaves the question of how fast that can be scaled up. It’s based on Aluminium hydroxide which needs Aluminium is easily available and turning it into Aluminium hydroxide is not very expensive.
In addition to just using Aluminium hydroxide InvivoGen does something they call ultrasonication with it.
I’m not sure how we would go about determining how fast it is to scale up Aluminium hydroxide to 2 million for Germany’s 80 million inhabitants or 200 million worth of it for the world population.
The burden of proof is still (by the Crawford Standard) on you to demonstrate that Steocker’s vaccine was “easy to scale up.” I agree with you in my OP that regulation and ineffective governance are partly to blame for production delays. What’s in question is the proportion of the blame.
Yes, even small delays are highly consequential in an exponential growth scenario. But determining the proportion of delay due to governance vs. inevitable pratical issues is the question at hand. The point of this post is that to determine the delay due to governance, you need to thoroughly assess the delay due to practicalities, and also investigate that there are other issues beyond these two categories. Simply naming yet more examples of governance failures doesn’t really help address this.
The argument here is that a biotech billionaire is likely able to know what can be achieved in a 3-month timeframe with his technology.
But lets look at his description:
Kochsalz is salt or NaCl which is easily available in very large quantities.
The antigen production seems to require a 2000-liter reactor for producing enough for 1 million people per day and he suggests that more advanced technology can do 5 times as much in a middle sized labatory room, so that doesn’t seem to be a constraint.
That leaves the Alhydrogel of InvivoGen. Current cost seems to be 248,00 € for 250ml which is a bit more then what you need for 1000 dosis. That leaves the question of how fast that can be scaled up. It’s based on Aluminium hydroxide which needs Aluminium is easily available and turning it into Aluminium hydroxide is not very expensive.
In addition to just using Aluminium hydroxide InvivoGen does something they call ultrasonication with it.
I’m not sure how we would go about determining how fast it is to scale up Aluminium hydroxide to 2 million for Germany’s 80 million inhabitants or 200 million worth of it for the world population.