Unfortunately, you often have to rule intuitively. How does complexity figure in the estimation of probability of gray goo? Useful heuristic, but no silver bullet.
I think that one has to differentiate between the perfect unbiased individual rationalist who uses heuristics but ultimately makes the final decision from first principles if necessary, and the semi-rationalist community, where individual members vary in degree of motivated cognition.
The latter works better with more rigid rules and less leeway for people to believe what they want. It’s a tradeoff: random errors induced by rough-and-ready estimates, versus systematic errors induced by wishful thinking of various forms.
Sure, for cases where arbitrary complexity has been added, the “default level of certainty” is 2^-(Complexity).
Unfortunately, you often have to rule intuitively. How does complexity figure in the estimation of probability of gray goo? Useful heuristic, but no silver bullet.
I think that one has to differentiate between the perfect unbiased individual rationalist who uses heuristics but ultimately makes the final decision from first principles if necessary, and the semi-rationalist community, where individual members vary in degree of motivated cognition.
The latter works better with more rigid rules and less leeway for people to believe what they want. It’s a tradeoff: random errors induced by rough-and-ready estimates, versus systematic errors induced by wishful thinking of various forms.