Unfortunately, you often have to rule intuitively. How does complexity figure in the estimation of probability of gray goo? Useful heuristic, but no silver bullet.
I think that one has to differentiate between the perfect unbiased individual rationalist who uses heuristics but ultimately makes the final decision from first principles if necessary, and the semi-rationalist community, where individual members vary in degree of motivated cognition.
The latter works better with more rigid rules and less leeway for people to believe what they want. It’s a tradeoff: random errors induced by rough-and-ready estimates, versus systematic errors induced by wishful thinking of various forms.
Still depends on the nature of the event (Russel’s teapot). There is no default level of certainty, no magical 50⁄50.
Sure, for cases where arbitrary complexity has been added, the “default level of certainty” is 2^-(Complexity).
Unfortunately, you often have to rule intuitively. How does complexity figure in the estimation of probability of gray goo? Useful heuristic, but no silver bullet.
I think that one has to differentiate between the perfect unbiased individual rationalist who uses heuristics but ultimately makes the final decision from first principles if necessary, and the semi-rationalist community, where individual members vary in degree of motivated cognition.
The latter works better with more rigid rules and less leeway for people to believe what they want. It’s a tradeoff: random errors induced by rough-and-ready estimates, versus systematic errors induced by wishful thinking of various forms.