The fund observes how well the predictions do, and increases the stake of those users whose predictions did well, and burns part of the stake of those who performed badly. Then it increases the stake of those who did well and burns part of the stake of those who performed badly.
Is there a difference between these two things?
The importance of unknown unknowns. They would presumably make the prior wider, and could also be incorporated from an outside-view perspective.
A meteor falling out of the sky used to be an unknown factor. It doesn’t happen often, and might be underestimated. For that matter, pandemics—you could argue this is “the outside view’s moment to shine” but who held this outside view? (That was rhetorical, but since this is a forecasting newsletter—any examples of centenarians response or perspective to/on SARS or COVID?)
No, the first part is a typo, thanks.
I’m not sure I understand what “this” refer to in that sentence