[Question] How do you Murphyjitsu essentially risky activities?

In the CFAR Handbook they have the following process instructions for Murphyjitsu:

  1. Select a goal. A habit you want to install, or a plan you’d like to execute, or a project you want to complete.

  2. Outline your plan. Be sure to list next actions, concrete steps, and specific deadlines or benchmarks. It’s important that you can actually visualize yourself moving through your plan, rather than having something vague like work out more.

  3. Surprise-o-meter. It’s been months, and you’ve made little or no progress! Where are you, on the scale from yeah, that sounds right to I literally don’t understand what happened? If you’re completely shocked—good job, your inner sim endorses your plan! If you’re not, though, go to Step 4.

  4. Pre-hindsight. Try to construct a plausible narrative for what kept you from succeeding. Remember to look at both internal and external factors.

  5. Bulletproofing. What actions can you take to prevent these hypothetical failure modes? Visualize taking those preemptive actions and then ask your inner sim “What comes next?” Have you successfully defused the danger?

  6. Iterate steps 3-5. That’s right—it’s not over yet! Even with your new failsafes, your plan still failed. Are you shocked? If so, victory! If not—keep going.

It seems like this process presumes that mitigations are low-cost and that the project you are trying to achieve is fundamentally achievable according to your inner sim. Most of this is presumption is contained in step 3. I’ve been thinking about how to apply this process to projects in a professional context (rather than a “self-help” context I guess) and in many cases you face costly tradeoffs regarding derisking mitigations. Also, sometimes your project may just be a big bet.

How do you change Murphyjitsu to work in such situations? Also, if people have experiences using Murphyjitsu in projects (e.g. a 1-3 month project involving a small team people), I’d be interested in learning how it’s different.

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