I am somewhat skeptical of the “1-month away” phrasing, since I have heard it every month for the last two years. I worry that I’m rounding you off to a position you don’t actually hold (in which you are perennially advocating for caution, but claiming a new development is just around the corner). Rather than assume, I think it would behoove me to ask about your past behavior: During what times of the past year or so did you have advocated for only very limited covid avoidance strategies (e.g. not meeting with people who are currently displaying symptoms of covid, preferring better ventilated or outdoor venues for large events), but encouraged or at least not discouraged behavior that carries some risk (going to events with many people, wearing a mask only if you feel like it, etc.)?
I’m a dumbass who didn’t know about p100 masks until a post on lesswrong told me about them, about two months ago. I also didn’t start quarantining seriously until late january, when it was far too late (no known long-covid symptoms in my case). I even used surgical masks throughout 2020 and most of 2021, because I didn’t know better. I did all these incorrect things, even though I knew that Covid is a brain virus, since summer 2020, but I didn’t have any concrete data about the brain damage and disability whereas now I have a pretty good general idea.
I didn’t know how easy it was to avoid catching the virus and how worthwhile it is to do so.
Also, we’ve never, ever been anywhere near this close to herd immunity, due to omicron probably infecting everyone everywhere in January. And since the current variants are stalling, it seems to me like they’re hitting a wall of that herd immunity as each variant runs out of high-risk people to spread to. So the expected cost-benefit ration is higher than ever before of being less-brain-damaged-than-par.
I am somewhat skeptical of the “1-month away” phrasing, since I have heard it every month for the last two years. I worry that I’m rounding you off to a position you don’t actually hold (in which you are perennially advocating for caution, but claiming a new development is just around the corner). Rather than assume, I think it would behoove me to ask about your past behavior: During what times of the past year or so did you have advocated for only very limited covid avoidance strategies (e.g. not meeting with people who are currently displaying symptoms of covid, preferring better ventilated or outdoor venues for large events), but encouraged or at least not discouraged behavior that carries some risk (going to events with many people, wearing a mask only if you feel like it, etc.)?
I’m a dumbass who didn’t know about p100 masks until a post on lesswrong told me about them, about two months ago. I also didn’t start quarantining seriously until late january, when it was far too late (no known long-covid symptoms in my case). I even used surgical masks throughout 2020 and most of 2021, because I didn’t know better. I did all these incorrect things, even though I knew that Covid is a brain virus, since summer 2020, but I didn’t have any concrete data about the brain damage and disability whereas now I have a pretty good general idea.
I didn’t know how easy it was to avoid catching the virus and how worthwhile it is to do so.
Also, we’ve never, ever been anywhere near this close to herd immunity, due to omicron probably infecting everyone everywhere in January. And since the current variants are stalling, it seems to me like they’re hitting a wall of that herd immunity as each variant runs out of high-risk people to spread to. So the expected cost-benefit ration is higher than ever before of being less-brain-damaged-than-par.