A lot of speedboats are built for leisure. You wouldn’t want to build such speedboats if they were too deadly. People who get killed by speedboats aren’t going to be recommending them to others. The government is going to attack speedboat companies that don’t try to reduce speedboat danger. Speedboats tend to be a net expense rather than a convenience or necessity, so there’s a natural repulsive force away from using them.
I didn’t mean to imply that speedboats are a perfect analogy. They’re not. Maybe not even a good one.
My claim was that details matter; we can’t get good p(doom) estimates without considering specific scenarios, including all of the details you mention about the motivations and regulations around use, as well as the engineering approaches, and more.
A lot of speedboats are built for leisure. You wouldn’t want to build such speedboats if they were too deadly. People who get killed by speedboats aren’t going to be recommending them to others. The government is going to attack speedboat companies that don’t try to reduce speedboat danger. Speedboats tend to be a net expense rather than a convenience or necessity, so there’s a natural repulsive force away from using them.
I didn’t mean to imply that speedboats are a perfect analogy. They’re not. Maybe not even a good one.
My claim was that details matter; we can’t get good p(doom) estimates without considering specific scenarios, including all of the details you mention about the motivations and regulations around use, as well as the engineering approaches, and more.