I didn’t mean to imply that speedboats are a perfect analogy. They’re not. Maybe not even a good one.
My claim was that details matter; we can’t get good p(doom) estimates without considering specific scenarios, including all of the details you mention about the motivations and regulations around use, as well as the engineering approaches, and more.
I didn’t mean to imply that speedboats are a perfect analogy. They’re not. Maybe not even a good one.
My claim was that details matter; we can’t get good p(doom) estimates without considering specific scenarios, including all of the details you mention about the motivations and regulations around use, as well as the engineering approaches, and more.