Even if it does make sense strategically to put more attention on shorter timelines, that sure does not seem to be what actually drives the memetic advantage of short forecasts over long forecasts. If you want your attention to be steered in strategically-reasonable ways, you should probably first fully discount for the apparent memetic biases, and then go back and decide how much is reasonable to re-upweight short forecasts. Whatever bias the memetic advantage yields is unlikely to be the right bias, or even the right order of magnitude of relative attention bias.
I mean, I am not even sure it’s strategic given my other beliefs, and I was indeed saying that on the margin more longer-timeline coverage is worth it, so I think we agree.
Even if it does make sense strategically to put more attention on shorter timelines, that sure does not seem to be what actually drives the memetic advantage of short forecasts over long forecasts. If you want your attention to be steered in strategically-reasonable ways, you should probably first fully discount for the apparent memetic biases, and then go back and decide how much is reasonable to re-upweight short forecasts. Whatever bias the memetic advantage yields is unlikely to be the right bias, or even the right order of magnitude of relative attention bias.
I mean, I am not even sure it’s strategic given my other beliefs, and I was indeed saying that on the margin more longer-timeline coverage is worth it, so I think we agree.