Yes, I honestly thought the timeline was that short. I now think it’s 50% by end of 2028; over the last year my timelines have lengthened by about a year.
He makes some obvious points everyone already knows about bottlenecks etc. but then doesn’t explain why all that adds up to a decade or more, instead of of a year, or a month, or a century. In our takeoff speeds forecast we try to give a quantitative estimate that takes into account all the bottlenecks etc.
Yes, I honestly thought the timeline was that short. I now think it’s 50% by end of 2028; over the last year my timelines have lengthened by about a year.
Well extrapolating that it sounds like things are fine. :P
It has indeed been really nice, psychologically, to have timelines that are lengthening again. 2020 to 2024 that was not the case.
You wrote AI 2027 in April… what changed in such a short amount of time?
If your timelines lengthened over the last year, do you think writing AI 2027 was an honest reflection of your opinions at the time?
The draft of AI 2027 was done in December, then we had months of editing and rewriting in response to feedback. For more on what changed, see various comments I made online such as this one: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cxuzALcmucCndYv4a/daniel-kokotajlo-s-shortform?commentId=dq6bpAHeu5Cbbiuyd
We said right on the front page of AI 2027 in a footnote that our actual AGI timelines medians were somewhat longer than 2027:
I also mentioned my slightly longer timelines in various interviews about it, including the first one with Kevin Roose.
OpenAI researcher Jason Wei recently stated that there will be many bottlenecks to recursive self improvement (experiments, data), thoughts?
https://x.com/_jasonwei/status/1939762496757539297z
He makes some obvious points everyone already knows about bottlenecks etc. but then doesn’t explain why all that adds up to a decade or more, instead of of a year, or a month, or a century. In our takeoff speeds forecast we try to give a quantitative estimate that takes into account all the bottlenecks etc.