There’s this assumption that most people have that tomorrow can only be a better, yet mostly recognizable version of today and the very idea things can suddenly get worse, permanently or change unrecognizably in a few years is nonsensical.
I know you’re thinking, ” ok, now tell me something that I don’t know”. Well you don’t know my father and what he believes about the world and why it’s so infuriating.
I read a lot of papers and articles and Lesswrong posts. I can see that there are broadly two ways the future will likely go:
Societal collapse ( through a combination of climate change and resource depletion)
AI transformation ( whether utopian or dystopian, conditional on AGI at the least and a timeline that sees it being achieved roughly in the mid 2030s, let’s say 2035)
Yet my father does not appreciate my concerns. He calls anything not related to my law degree ” nonsense” and says that I need to have a “positive mental attitude” that’s not going to magically make more resources or prevent societal collapse.
He has a very clear vision in mind for me:
Do well in law school
↓
Get a job in a good firm
↓
Make lots of money
↓
Die
I believe the world that allowed for that chain to occur is already dead and gone one way or another. Let’s assume AGI never arrives and society collapses soon after I graduate, my life trajectory will probably look like this.
The Societal collapse timeline
Graduate from law school
↓
Work for a year or two before resource depletion coupled with climate change destroy our civilization through a combination of destroyed supply chains, reduced agricultural yields causing riots and resource wars.
↓
Flee the city, live alone or in a small, tight knit, sustainable, resilient commune....unable to treat common illnesses that are trivial to treat today
↓
Die from:
Diabetes
Heart disease
Vitamin D deficiency ( I can’t absorb it from sunlight)
Appendicitis
Cancer ( though this does kill us today as well)
Cataracts ( though indirectly, if you can’t see danger coming you’re extremely vulnerable)
It’s important to note that I have taken steps in anticipation of this scenario, I control my blood sugar obsessively, usually staying under the 36g of added sugar a day threshold. I also haven’t drank coke in 2 years. I walk every morning and evening. I take care of my teeth too, because periodontitis doesn’t look very fun.
Now let’s turn to an objectively bad AI scenario.
The D20 maximizer
Graduate from law school
↓
Killed for my atoms to be reassembled into D20s
Now a good one
The Utopia
Halfway through law school, a benevolent AI takes over
↓
It solves all our problems, and provides everyone with a luxurious UBI
↓
It solves aging and death
↓
Live like an early 21st century 1%er forever
I understand that there are more scenarios ( like an eternal AI run dystopia ). I’m just outlining some of the ones I think are plausible.
The fact remains that I:
Don’t know how to convince my father that the world he’s preparing me for likely doesn’t exist anymore and that the future is likely to be wildly different for better or for worse.
Don’t know what to do.
Do I stay in school or drop out to try and work on all the problems we’re facing? Sometimes I feel like it’s hopeless but if there’s even a 1% chance of success I believe it has to be taken.
No one understands that tomorrow will not be today and I don’t know what to do.
There’s this assumption that most people have that tomorrow can only be a better, yet mostly recognizable version of today and the very idea things can suddenly get worse, permanently or change unrecognizably in a few years is nonsensical.
I know you’re thinking, ” ok, now tell me something that I don’t know”. Well you don’t know my father and what he believes about the world and why it’s so infuriating.
I read a lot of papers and articles and Lesswrong posts. I can see that there are broadly two ways the future will likely go:
Societal collapse ( through a combination of climate change and resource depletion)
AI transformation ( whether utopian or dystopian, conditional on AGI at the least and a timeline that sees it being achieved roughly in the mid 2030s, let’s say 2035)
Yet my father does not appreciate my concerns. He calls anything not related to my law degree ” nonsense” and says that I need to have a “positive mental attitude” that’s not going to magically make more resources or prevent societal collapse.
He has a very clear vision in mind for me:
Do well in law school
↓
Get a job in a good firm
↓
Make lots of money
↓
Die
I believe the world that allowed for that chain to occur is already dead and gone one way or another. Let’s assume AGI never arrives and society collapses soon after I graduate, my life trajectory will probably look like this.
The Societal collapse timeline
Graduate from law school
↓
Work for a year or two before resource depletion coupled with climate change destroy our civilization through a combination of destroyed supply chains, reduced agricultural yields causing riots and resource wars.
↓
Flee the city, live alone or in a small, tight knit, sustainable, resilient commune....unable to treat common illnesses that are trivial to treat today
↓
Die from:
Diabetes
Heart disease
Vitamin D deficiency ( I can’t absorb it from sunlight)
Appendicitis
Cancer ( though this does kill us today as well)
Cataracts ( though indirectly, if you can’t see danger coming you’re extremely vulnerable)
It’s important to note that I have taken steps in anticipation of this scenario, I control my blood sugar obsessively, usually staying under the 36g of added sugar a day threshold. I also haven’t drank coke in 2 years. I walk every morning and evening. I take care of my teeth too, because periodontitis doesn’t look very fun.
Now let’s turn to an objectively bad AI scenario.
The D20 maximizer
Graduate from law school
↓
Killed for my atoms to be reassembled into D20s
Now a good one
The Utopia
Halfway through law school, a benevolent AI takes over
↓
It solves all our problems, and provides everyone with a luxurious UBI
↓
It solves aging and death
↓
Live like an early 21st century 1%er forever
I understand that there are more scenarios ( like an eternal AI run dystopia ). I’m just outlining some of the ones I think are plausible.
The fact remains that I:
Don’t know how to convince my father that the world he’s preparing me for likely doesn’t exist anymore and that the future is likely to be wildly different for better or for worse.
Don’t know what to do.
Do I stay in school or drop out to try and work on all the problems we’re facing? Sometimes I feel like it’s hopeless but if there’s even a 1% chance of success I believe it has to be taken.