single downvote because this is a rehash of existing posts that doesn’t appear to clearly add detail, improve precision, or improve communicability of the concepts.
I see the disagreement votes on my comment are well justified by my difficulty in finding the prior work I thought was abundant! It looks like most of what I was thinking of can be found in AI Impacts’ work. I’ve changed my vote to an upvote because of this. Some links that seem particularly relevant:
single downvote because this is a rehash of existing posts that doesn’t appear to clearly add detail, improve precision, or improve communicability of the concepts.
Which posts? Would you mind sharing some links? I couldn’t find many posts related to black swans.
Apart from the first section summarizing black swans, everything here is my personal opinion.
I see the disagreement votes on my comment are well justified by my difficulty in finding the prior work I thought was abundant! It looks like most of what I was thinking of can be found in AI Impacts’ work. I’ve changed my vote to an upvote because of this. Some links that seem particularly relevant:
https://aiimpacts.org/observed-patterns-around-major-technological-advancements/
https://aiimpacts.org/discontinuous-progress-investigation/
https://aiimpacts.org/accuracy-of-ai-predictions/
https://aiimpacts.org/group-differences-in-ai-predictions/
https://aiimpacts.org/the-biggest-technological-leaps/
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SueEfksxDQm4Q97oK/are-we-trending-toward-transformative-ai-how-would-we-know
there are also some interesting posts under the tags:
https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/black-swans
https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/futurism
https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/event-horizon-thesis ← this one was why I thought it obvious
I have removed my own upvote on my original comment. Sorry about that!
Thanks for the links!