Have you considered holding on to your childhood home and renting it to someone you know? I assume it hurts more to sell it than it would hurt to know it is giving a friend a roof (at a potentially good price).
I expect continuing to live in an area that has regular shootings is unlikely to be high EV but I don’t know your life. Do you consider it to contain your peer group? Would you be better suited living in a different region of your city/a different city?
On concealed carry: getting in to gun fights is very unlikely to be maximizing your EV. You should almost definitely get out of where you are if this is a well founded concern (e.g. the shooting you are mentioning was not a fluke).
Also on concealed carry- the best tool for self defense if the one you actually have with you when you need it. Most instances I know of people in my peer group who have felt like they needed to defend themselves/were escalated against have not been happened when they were able to predict beforehand (likely because they avoid situations that they expect to need to defend themselves in preemptively, as you say). I think you should strive to carry almost all the time it is legal to do so (given you are comfortable with the idea in the first place). If it is known to be costly to defect against you and/or people like you, people are less likely to do so in the first place. Is your carry piece comfortable? I personally went the route of not carrying a firearm for a while even though I was licensed to do so because I had convinced myself that a full size was useful/it was lame to carry a smaller handgun. It may have been useful, but it doesn’t matter how theoretically useful it is if it’s also uncomfortable and prints more than I like. I have since gotten over my pride on that point and now regularly carry a subcompact (rather than occasionally carrying a full size) almost every time it is legal for me to do so. (Generally speaking, losing weight has also made it much more comfortable to carry and trying different carry positions helped me find my currently preferred carry position at 1 o’clock)
On vibes: move! it really sounds like you are staying where you are due to intertia rather than actually feeling like it is where you want to be.
I expect if someone is living in their childhood home, there are likely a decent number of people they know who are not interested in moving (how many of your friends from high school still live where they grew up?).
My risk tolerance is not my friends; my threshold for moving is not the universally correct threshold.
I doubt it requires ‘convincing’ a friend continue living where they grew up.
This reasoning is broadly correct, but it looks like I left out an important fact
My friends already moved, and my neighborhood is unrecognizable. The house is convenient for commuting and my risk tolerance is higher than most, so I’ve stayed. If I were to rent it out, I would be renting through a management firm.
It’s convenient for working, but that might be changing. I have been used to working in person, but lately I’ve been remote. If I get another remote job, there’s probably no rational reason to stay.
On carry, I generally agree with you in principle.
In practice, one of the first things I did when I got my permit was pay ‘about the price of a nice gun’ to the local criminal defense attorney for legal advice about what the actual enforced rules on self defense in this particular area are.
The answer I got was that a large number of plausible scenarios would result in the specific DA we have laying a charge of premeditated murder, which I might be able to plead down to involuntary manslaughter (6-10 years), the estimate on defense fees will be close to the value of the house, as I am above the ‘public defender’ threshold.
In light of this, I do not carry in public, avoid participating in public life, and avoid any location where carry would be both legal and sensible.
The vibes definitely feel ‘move’, but I think I have some emotional hangup I need to get over.
Some assorted thoughts:
Have you considered holding on to your childhood home and renting it to someone you know? I assume it hurts more to sell it than it would hurt to know it is giving a friend a roof (at a potentially good price).
I expect continuing to live in an area that has regular shootings is unlikely to be high EV but I don’t know your life. Do you consider it to contain your peer group? Would you be better suited living in a different region of your city/a different city?
On concealed carry: getting in to gun fights is very unlikely to be maximizing your EV. You should almost definitely get out of where you are if this is a well founded concern (e.g. the shooting you are mentioning was not a fluke).
Also on concealed carry- the best tool for self defense if the one you actually have with you when you need it. Most instances I know of people in my peer group who have felt like they needed to defend themselves/were escalated against have not been happened when they were able to predict beforehand (likely because they avoid situations that they expect to need to defend themselves in preemptively, as you say). I think you should strive to carry almost all the time it is legal to do so (given you are comfortable with the idea in the first place). If it is known to be costly to defect against you and/or people like you, people are less likely to do so in the first place.
Is your carry piece comfortable? I personally went the route of not carrying a firearm for a while even though I was licensed to do so because I had convinced myself that a full size was useful/it was lame to carry a smaller handgun. It may have been useful, but it doesn’t matter how theoretically useful it is if it’s also uncomfortable and prints more than I like. I have since gotten over my pride on that point and now regularly carry a subcompact (rather than occasionally carrying a full size) almost every time it is legal for me to do so. (Generally speaking, losing weight has also made it much more comfortable to carry and trying different carry positions helped me find my currently preferred carry position at 1 o’clock)
On vibes: move! it really sounds like you are staying where you are due to intertia rather than actually feeling like it is where you want to be.
If you think your house’s location is too dangerous to live in, it seems weird to convince a friend to move there.
I expect if someone is living in their childhood home, there are likely a decent number of people they know who are not interested in moving (how many of your friends from high school still live where they grew up?).
My risk tolerance is not my friends; my threshold for moving is not the universally correct threshold.
I doubt it requires ‘convincing’ a friend continue living where they grew up.
This reasoning is broadly correct, but it looks like I left out an important fact
My friends already moved, and my neighborhood is unrecognizable. The house is convenient for commuting and my risk tolerance is higher than most, so I’ve stayed. If I were to rent it out, I would be renting through a management firm.
It’s convenient for working, but that might be changing. I have been used to working in person, but lately I’ve been remote. If I get another remote job, there’s probably no rational reason to stay.
On carry, I generally agree with you in principle.
In practice, one of the first things I did when I got my permit was pay ‘about the price of a nice gun’ to the local criminal defense attorney for legal advice about what the actual enforced rules on self defense in this particular area are.
The answer I got was that a large number of plausible scenarios would result in the specific DA we have laying a charge of premeditated murder, which I might be able to plead down to involuntary manslaughter (6-10 years), the estimate on defense fees will be close to the value of the house, as I am above the ‘public defender’ threshold.
In light of this, I do not carry in public, avoid participating in public life, and avoid any location where carry would be both legal and sensible.
The vibes definitely feel ‘move’, but I think I have some emotional hangup I need to get over.