any acceptable outcome to TAI would make investments irrelevant; why waste your time with investments in an economic system that must be replaced for the future to contain humanity? money is much better spent on direct action than on others’ projects, as though hoping your stockholder contracts will still be honored after strong TAI causes sudden hyperinflation of all previous currencies. It is absolutely critical that TAI come with a new currency that causes this hyperinflation, and associated guarantees that all humans get a basic income of the new “ai outcomes” currency. as things are looking, people doing “investment with guaranteed payout contracts” are likely to be a major force that ensures that any attempted alignment research is simply used to prevent ai from being aligned with customers, in order to maximize control of customer behavior, and this will then destroy the investors as well. don’t invest in projects that have that pattern!
Generally yes. Though you can treat this post as a sort of hedge—your basic hope would be that current markets become irrelevant, but on the off chance that they get captured into some kind of dystopian megacorp type thingy, you might as well own some stocks in whoever wins. It’s also a way to ride the wave before TAI, depending on your timelines.
any acceptable outcome to TAI would make investments irrelevant; why waste your time with investments in an economic system that must be replaced for the future to contain humanity? money is much better spent on direct action than on others’ projects, as though hoping your stockholder contracts will still be honored after strong TAI causes sudden hyperinflation of all previous currencies. It is absolutely critical that TAI come with a new currency that causes this hyperinflation, and associated guarantees that all humans get a basic income of the new “ai outcomes” currency. as things are looking, people doing “investment with guaranteed payout contracts” are likely to be a major force that ensures that any attempted alignment research is simply used to prevent ai from being aligned with customers, in order to maximize control of customer behavior, and this will then destroy the investors as well. don’t invest in projects that have that pattern!
It doesn’t seem to be the safest to be too sure how the future will go. Id recommend hedging for whatever possibilities you can.
And: having a lot of capital could be very useful in the run up to TAI. Eg for pursuing/funding safety work.
Generally yes. Though you can treat this post as a sort of hedge—your basic hope would be that current markets become irrelevant, but on the off chance that they get captured into some kind of dystopian megacorp type thingy, you might as well own some stocks in whoever wins. It’s also a way to ride the wave before TAI, depending on your timelines.