Predictionbook has been linked to and discussed here before. I’m one of the (few) active users, and I’m curious why more people who are regulars here don’t use it or don’t use it frequently. People who don’t use Predictionbook, why don’t you? Part of why I am curious is that if there are interface or similar issues then now might be a good time to speak up since Jayson Virissimo is working on a similar service here.
A huge issue of why I’m not using it more is that it’s often hard to find interesting predictions to vote on. The Recent prediction page for example doesn’t allow you to show a second page.
It doesn’t seem to be possible to simply look at all the predictions on Tag X. I think the way stack-exchange works with tags functions quite well.
I think commenting should be separated from individual prediction making. There’s no reason why the website shouldn’t allow full threaded comments.
I used to use prediction book, but stopped because the interface was awful and the site was full of bad predictions that should have been private but weren’t (e.g., I’m going to pass my exam tomorrow—just like that, without any context).
I think the issue is not about allowing/disallowing such predictions but having good tagging that tags all those predictions with “private life” and then the option of people to block that tag the way you can block tags on stackexchange.
Yes, one of the most common issues people have brought up with PredictionBook is the lack of tagging in general which also makes it harder to search for predictions. I tried at one point to add comments to my predictions of the form [tag] but it didn’t work very well and no one else was doing it. If there were a formal way to do it with searchable categories that would be really helpful.
I use it when linked to it on interesting questions, usually HPMOR. But the site is too thinly used and too poorly designed to have a really robust use for me.
Disclaimer: This application was designed for the sole purpose of helping me obtain employment in software development and is not yet production ready. Use at your own risk (of data loss)!
Still, having said that: let me know if you have any ideas.
To judge a prediction on your site at the moment I have to:
1) Click on the prediction in the list. 2) Click on the text field which contains the number 3) Switch to keyboard to type in the number and enter to affirm the prediction 4) Use the mouse again to get back to the prediction list
The second point could be saved by autofocusing on that field. You might also think of a way to provide buttons to allow people to enter data via mouse clicks.
It would also be nice to have a “next prediction”-button on prediction page to make it easier to enter a bunch of predictions.
I tried to create a prediction and the free text field was confusing. A calender view would be a lot better.
When I typed in “355 days” and it gave me a prediction that supposed to be juged in 2 hours and no way to edit it.
I recently wrote a small (python, command-line) program for prediction tracking. Above all, I wanted something that allowed very quick entry, that stored everything in a single plain-text human-readable file on my own computer, and that I could easily customize.
As far as features go, I also wanted a tagging system and to be able to do more sophisticated analysis. For example, I wanted to classify predictions as e.g.”work” or “politics” when looking at accuracy, or to see how my calibration changed over different times or with how far in advance I had made a prediction.
Since the predictions that I care most about aren’t very interesting to other people, I don’t miss the social aspect. Nor do I want to obscure a prediction that contains personal details or store it separately.
An example:
If you wanted to predict that it will rain today, with 50% confidence, and tag the prediction with the “weather” and “external” tags, and be reminded to judge the prediction 2 days from now, you’d type this on the command line:
predict ‘rain today’ 50 -t weather external -d 2
The created entry in the log will look something like this:
Running “predict—due” will either ask you about any predictions that are ready to be judged and update the corresponding log entry, or just change “state” to “due” so you can ctrl-f and edit the log directly. (Since the log is just text, you can manually edit any entry, like changing a prediction from “open” to “true” or “false”).
Running “predict—stats” will dump statistics.
I’m very happy with this work flow, and I’m hoping to clean up the code and share it when I get a moment. It’s all of ~250 lines, but I couldn’t find what I wanted out there already.
I don’t like design and usability of the site. I think topics should be somehow divided, because not everyone is interested in soccer or currencies which are the most trivial things to predict
I’ve occasionally used it, but I often want to make a prediction while I’m not near a computer and doing it on a smartphone is a bit of a pain. I also don’t have enough friends using it, so using it to prove I was right isn’t all that possible.
I used to use it, but as I shifted to doing more on my mobile device I found it was a pain to use and so stopped. If it had a good app then I would use it again.
Three reasons. 1) Other people can also see your predictions and see if your predictions are worth paying attention to. 2) It helps you become less overconfident. 3) If you keep mispredicting in some specific category then you realize you need to rethink your basic premises about that area.
1) Who cares what other people think? Why should I help them if I have good predictions, or hurt them if I don’t? I don’t feel their joy or pain. I could see the necessity if I was receiving scorn, but I’m generally respected. Why try to adjust that?
2) Confidence makes happiness, right? I’m generally confident. Some part of that probably isn’t deserved. Why find out?
3) I don’t though, or if I do I don’t know about it. Why find out? I’d be distressed.
Well, sure if WalterL exists in a complete island and has no interest in getting other humans to pay attention to your predictions about the world then 1 doesn’t terribly matter. As for 2, this seems to be essentially an ignorance-is-bliss argument which if you are convinced of, I’m not sure why you are on LW at all. Moreover, it isn’t likely to be true: being overconfident can cause real harm- it makes one more likely to make decisions that one shouldn’t (for example: if you are overconfident in your investment ability, then you will actually lose money). 3) Seems to fall into a general value difference: services like PredictionBook are for people who want to know that they are actually modeling the world better. If you have to actively put blinders on to convince yourself you have a good model of the world, and you are ok with that, then there’s really not much to say. But then why are you even here?
Predictionbook has been linked to and discussed here before. I’m one of the (few) active users, and I’m curious why more people who are regulars here don’t use it or don’t use it frequently. People who don’t use Predictionbook, why don’t you? Part of why I am curious is that if there are interface or similar issues then now might be a good time to speak up since Jayson Virissimo is working on a similar service here.
I’m not really sure how to answer this. Predictionbook is just one of thousands of websites I don’t use.
I use predition book from time to time.
A huge issue of why I’m not using it more is that it’s often hard to find interesting predictions to vote on. The Recent prediction page for example doesn’t allow you to show a second page.
It doesn’t seem to be possible to simply look at all the predictions on Tag X. I think the way stack-exchange works with tags functions quite well.
I think commenting should be separated from individual prediction making. There’s no reason why the website shouldn’t allow full threaded comments.
I used to use prediction book, but stopped because the interface was awful and the site was full of bad predictions that should have been private but weren’t (e.g., I’m going to pass my exam tomorrow—just like that, without any context).
If only publicly verifiable/falsifiable predictions were permitted, would you have stuck around?
I think the issue is not about allowing/disallowing such predictions but having good tagging that tags all those predictions with “private life” and then the option of people to block that tag the way you can block tags on stackexchange.
Yes, one of the most common issues people have brought up with PredictionBook is the lack of tagging in general which also makes it harder to search for predictions. I tried at one point to add comments to my predictions of the form [tag] but it didn’t work very well and no one else was doing it. If there were a formal way to do it with searchable categories that would be really helpful.
Rather than simply forbidding them, I’d suggest having various sharing options ranging from “public” over “people I invite” to “just me.”
If anyone is going to implement such a thing, I think it’d be important to have separate calibration curves for each class of publicity.
It has a “just me” mode that the authors of those questions should use, but don’t.
No; that’s too restrictive. It just needed more moderation and a lot more love.
I use it when linked to it on interesting questions, usually HPMOR. But the site is too thinly used and too poorly designed to have a really robust use for me.
Disclaimer: This application was designed for the sole purpose of helping me obtain employment in software development and is not yet production ready. Use at your own risk (of data loss)!
Still, having said that: let me know if you have any ideas.
To judge a prediction on your site at the moment I have to:
1) Click on the prediction in the list.
2) Click on the text field which contains the number
3) Switch to keyboard to type in the number and enter to affirm the prediction
4) Use the mouse again to get back to the prediction list
The second point could be saved by autofocusing on that field. You might also think of a way to provide buttons to allow people to enter data via mouse clicks.
It would also be nice to have a “next prediction”-button on prediction page to make it easier to enter a bunch of predictions.
I tried to create a prediction and the free text field was confusing. A calender view would be a lot better. When I typed in “355 days” and it gave me a prediction that supposed to be juged in 2 hours and no way to edit it.
I recently wrote a small (python, command-line) program for prediction tracking. Above all, I wanted something that allowed very quick entry, that stored everything in a single plain-text human-readable file on my own computer, and that I could easily customize.
As far as features go, I also wanted a tagging system and to be able to do more sophisticated analysis. For example, I wanted to classify predictions as e.g.”work” or “politics” when looking at accuracy, or to see how my calibration changed over different times or with how far in advance I had made a prediction.
Since the predictions that I care most about aren’t very interesting to other people, I don’t miss the social aspect. Nor do I want to obscure a prediction that contains personal details or store it separately.
An example:
If you wanted to predict that it will rain today, with 50% confidence, and tag the prediction with the “weather” and “external” tags, and be reminded to judge the prediction 2 days from now, you’d type this on the command line:
The created entry in the log will look something like this:
Running “predict—due” will either ask you about any predictions that are ready to be judged and update the corresponding log entry, or just change “state” to “due” so you can ctrl-f and edit the log directly. (Since the log is just text, you can manually edit any entry, like changing a prediction from “open” to “true” or “false”).
Running “predict—stats” will dump statistics.
I’m very happy with this work flow, and I’m hoping to clean up the code and share it when I get a moment. It’s all of ~250 lines, but I couldn’t find what I wanted out there already.
I don’t like design and usability of the site. I think topics should be somehow divided, because not everyone is interested in soccer or currencies which are the most trivial things to predict
I’ve occasionally used it, but I often want to make a prediction while I’m not near a computer and doing it on a smartphone is a bit of a pain. I also don’t have enough friends using it, so using it to prove I was right isn’t all that possible.
I used to use it, but as I shifted to doing more on my mobile device I found it was a pain to use and so stopped. If it had a good app then I would use it again.
It seems sort of pointless. Why do I need to know how accurate my predictions are? How would that benefit me?
Three reasons. 1) Other people can also see your predictions and see if your predictions are worth paying attention to. 2) It helps you become less overconfident. 3) If you keep mispredicting in some specific category then you realize you need to rethink your basic premises about that area.
Sure, but:
1) Who cares what other people think? Why should I help them if I have good predictions, or hurt them if I don’t? I don’t feel their joy or pain. I could see the necessity if I was receiving scorn, but I’m generally respected. Why try to adjust that? 2) Confidence makes happiness, right? I’m generally confident. Some part of that probably isn’t deserved. Why find out? 3) I don’t though, or if I do I don’t know about it. Why find out? I’d be distressed.
Well, sure if WalterL exists in a complete island and has no interest in getting other humans to pay attention to your predictions about the world then 1 doesn’t terribly matter. As for 2, this seems to be essentially an ignorance-is-bliss argument which if you are convinced of, I’m not sure why you are on LW at all. Moreover, it isn’t likely to be true: being overconfident can cause real harm- it makes one more likely to make decisions that one shouldn’t (for example: if you are overconfident in your investment ability, then you will actually lose money). 3) Seems to fall into a general value difference: services like PredictionBook are for people who want to know that they are actually modeling the world better. If you have to actively put blinders on to convince yourself you have a good model of the world, and you are ok with that, then there’s really not much to say. But then why are you even here?
Let me try and restate.
Instead of “why don’t you use predictionbook”, lets imagine that the question was “why don’t you use a chinup bar”. My answer is basically the same.
I’m not trying to improve what this tool improves, my arms/brain is strong enough for my purposes, and I’m not trying to go beyond those.