Is there some resource (for instance, in the LW sequences) where I can redirect people to get a quick, clean view into the Bayesian worldview of doing things, especially in science? When I read people say things like “Consensus doesn’t matter in science!” I want to respond with “Well, consensus isn’t everything, but being informed about the agreement in opinion of a large number of authorities in a subject should make you update your beliefs” but I find it hard to do that without then having to explain what “update your beliefs” actually means.
I think “change your mind” is too specific; in common parlance it’s used only for major changes, such as going from thinking “probably X” to “probably not-X”.
One the hardest things for people to do is change the way they believe the world is structured because psychologically there lies an aspect of death or non-existence. It is very hard for most people to do.
Is there some resource (for instance, in the LW sequences) where I can redirect people to get a quick, clean view into the Bayesian worldview of doing things, especially in science? When I read people say things like “Consensus doesn’t matter in science!” I want to respond with “Well, consensus isn’t everything, but being informed about the agreement in opinion of a large number of authorities in a subject should make you update your beliefs” but I find it hard to do that without then having to explain what “update your beliefs” actually means.
People don’t change their views about fundamental issues such as how they deal with knowledge quickly.
As far as articles go, Yvain’s article http://slatestarcodex.com/2013/08/06/on-first-looking-into-chapmans-pop-bayesianism/ is good.
“Change your mind”? “Take that on board”?
I think “change your mind” is too specific; in common parlance it’s used only for major changes, such as going from thinking “probably X” to “probably not-X”.
“Consider the balance of evidence”?
One the hardest things for people to do is change the way they believe the world is structured because psychologically there lies an aspect of death or non-existence. It is very hard for most people to do.