Even if the estimated date of change is off by a month or two, it would still mean that the trend changed before o1-preview was released, and several non-CoT models would still be on the faster trend.
What happens if you fit one trendline to the non-CoT models and one to the CoT, instead of a temporal breakpoint?
What happens if you fit one trendline to the non-CoT models and one to the CoT, instead of a temporal breakpoint?
Good idea! I edited the post.