I think the problem is that it’s not actually a good analogy, and EY made an error in using the current event to amplify his message. AFAIK, there’s never been anything that has to be perfect the very first time, and pointing out all the times we chose iteration over perfection isn’t evidence for that thesis.
The fact that there are ZERO good past analogies may be evidence that EY is wrong, or it may not be. But Matt Levine definitely has an advantage in communication that he can pick a new example (or at least a new aspect of it) every day for the 10 or so themes he repeats over and over. EY has no such source of repeated stories.
I think the problem is that it’s not actually a good analogy, and EY made an error in using the current event to amplify his message. AFAIK, there’s never been anything that has to be perfect the very first time, and pointing out all the times we chose iteration over perfection isn’t evidence for that thesis.
Well, yes. EY says that.AGI is a unique threat that has never happened before...and also that it’s analogus to other things.
I think the problem is that it’s not actually a good analogy, and EY made an error in using the current event to amplify his message. AFAIK, there’s never been anything that has to be perfect the very first time, and pointing out all the times we chose iteration over perfection isn’t evidence for that thesis.
The fact that there are ZERO good past analogies may be evidence that EY is wrong, or it may not be. But Matt Levine definitely has an advantage in communication that he can pick a new example (or at least a new aspect of it) every day for the 10 or so themes he repeats over and over. EY has no such source of repeated stories.
Well, yes. EY says that.AGI is a unique threat that has never happened before...and also that it’s analogus to other things.