A lot of people I respect don’t believe in “godlike” AI at all, so I am confused there.
I also worry about the policy implementation of a “pause” being done in the wrong way with lots of side effects.
I agree that if we have the “slow” AI progress laid out in AI 2040 that’s actually way faster than late-20c/early-21c tech progress has been, then I don’t have anything to complain about from an economic growth point of view.
Frankly it’s weird to me that the labs chose to go to RSI as fast as possible in the first place; intuitively I would have thought the natural thing to do would be to take your time and get it right and get a much better understanding of how neural nets even work.
Frankly it’s weird to me that the labs chose to go to RSI as fast as possible in the first place; intuitively I would have thought the natural thing to do would be to take your time and get it right and get a much better understanding of how neural nets even work.
Really? What do you find so confusing about it?
It’s the kind of thing you do if you want to affect the world through power. It’s quite uncertain how far we are from understanding NNs well (anywhere from 1-10 years seems reasonable, even with our current AI helpers). And in the meantime someone else could invest in scaling NNs and get there, or you won’t be able to sustain enough expectation of future revenue for your investment multiples, or if you’re OpenAI then Anthropic will do it first and you lose power. (Though people are spooked enough by recent incidents that these two labs might start pacing the frontier now, so maybe your intuitions are more correct.)
A lot of people I respect don’t believe in “godlike” AI at all, so I am confused there.
I also worry about the policy implementation of a “pause” being done in the wrong way with lots of side effects.
I agree that if we have the “slow” AI progress laid out in AI 2040 that’s actually way faster than late-20c/early-21c tech progress has been, then I don’t have anything to complain about from an economic growth point of view.
Frankly it’s weird to me that the labs chose to go to RSI as fast as possible in the first place; intuitively I would have thought the natural thing to do would be to take your time and get it right and get a much better understanding of how neural nets even work.
Really? What do you find so confusing about it?
It’s the kind of thing you do if you want to affect the world through power. It’s quite uncertain how far we are from understanding NNs well (anywhere from 1-10 years seems reasonable, even with our current AI helpers). And in the meantime someone else could invest in scaling NNs and get there, or you won’t be able to sustain enough expectation of future revenue for your investment multiples, or if you’re OpenAI then Anthropic will do it first and you lose power. (Though people are spooked enough by recent incidents that these two labs might start pacing the frontier now, so maybe your intuitions are more correct.)
Can you name 5? Who also have clearly thought about the topic in a serious way? (E.g. not Tyler Cowen)
Or is the issue with “godlike”, but they’d be fine with “wildly superhuman”.