I am particularly bothered by this because it seems irrelevant to FAI. I’m fully convinced that a smarter than human AI could take control of the Earth via less magical means, using time tested methods such as manipulating humans, rigging elections, making friends, killing its enemies, and generally only being a marginally more clever and motivated than a typical human leader.
What do you agree with? For example, I agree that it could, hypothetically, resort to such conventional methods (just as it could, hypothetically, paint the Moon in yellow), but I don’t think it’s likely. Do you mean that you think it’s likely (or not unlikely etc.)?
Specifically, with the claim that bringing up MNT is unnecessary, both in the “burdensome detail” sense and “needlessly science-fictional and likely to trigger absurdity heuristics” sense.
Likewise. I’ve always read Eliezer’s original statement along the lines of “and then AI will invent a powerful new technology or will use existing technology in a new and highly effective way.” There are a dozen of those, MNT is just one example. With so many options, the probability of achieving at least one of them is pretty high.
I agree with this.
What do you agree with? For example, I agree that it could, hypothetically, resort to such conventional methods (just as it could, hypothetically, paint the Moon in yellow), but I don’t think it’s likely. Do you mean that you think it’s likely (or not unlikely etc.)?
Specifically, with the claim that bringing up MNT is unnecessary, both in the “burdensome detail” sense and “needlessly science-fictional and likely to trigger absurdity heuristics” sense.
Likewise. I’ve always read Eliezer’s original statement along the lines of “and then AI will invent a powerful new technology or will use existing technology in a new and highly effective way.” There are a dozen of those, MNT is just one example. With so many options, the probability of achieving at least one of them is pretty high.