Blackmail and Bomb cases seem to be examples of not being able to comprehend large numbers.
Really, if the predictor mistake rate is indeed 1 in a trillion trillion then it’s much more probable that the note lies than that you are in this extremely rare circumstances where you pick the left envelope and the bomb is indeed there.
On the other hand, I’m not sure that FDT really recommends you to procreate in Procreation. Maybe your FDT following father just made a mistake? How much your decision making is actually correlated? I don’t think there is much of subjective dependence in this setting. Did he simulate you at some point? Because, otherwise, I don’t see how “choose not to procreate and thus do not to exist” is a coherent outcome.
Also if you do not procreate and thus do not exist, how can you have an utility function valueing existence? Moreover, even if we accept the premise, aren’t you dooming all your decendants to similarly miserable existence? They definetely do not exist yet and the fact that they would prefer to miserably exist conditionally on existing doesn’t mean that it’s a good idea to make them exist, when they do not exist yet.
Really, if the predictor mistake rate is indeed 1 in a trillion trillion then it’s much more probable that the note lies than that you are in this extremely rare circumstances where you pick the left envelope and the bomb is indeed there.
Likely true in practice, but this is a hypothetical example and FDT does not rely on that.
On the other hand, I’m not sure that FDT really recommends you to procreate in Procreation.
That scenario did seem underspecified to me too.
Also if you do not procreate and thus do not exist, how can you have an utility function valueing existence?
Hypothetically, you have a particular utility function/decision procedure—but some values of those might be incompatible with you actually existing.
Blackmail and Bomb cases seem to be examples of not being able to comprehend large numbers.
Really, if the predictor mistake rate is indeed 1 in a trillion trillion then it’s much more probable that the note lies than that you are in this extremely rare circumstances where you pick the left envelope and the bomb is indeed there.
On the other hand, I’m not sure that FDT really recommends you to procreate in Procreation. Maybe your FDT following father just made a mistake? How much your decision making is actually correlated? I don’t think there is much of subjective dependence in this setting. Did he simulate you at some point? Because, otherwise, I don’t see how “choose not to procreate and thus do not to exist” is a coherent outcome.
Also if you do not procreate and thus do not exist, how can you have an utility function valueing existence? Moreover, even if we accept the premise, aren’t you dooming all your decendants to similarly miserable existence? They definetely do not exist yet and the fact that they would prefer to miserably exist conditionally on existing doesn’t mean that it’s a good idea to make them exist, when they do not exist yet.
Likely true in practice, but this is a hypothetical example and FDT does not rely on that.
That scenario did seem underspecified to me too.
Hypothetically, you have a particular utility function/decision procedure—but some values of those might be incompatible with you actually existing.