To me it sounds like Thiel is making a political argument against… diversity, wokeness, the general opposition against western civilization and technology… and pattern-matching everything to that. His argument sounds to me like this:
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A true libertarian is never afraid of progress, he boldly goes forward and breaks things. You cannot separate dangerous research from useful research anyway; every invention is dual-use, so worrying about horrible consequences is silly, progress is always a net gain. The only reason people think about risks is political mindkilling.
I am disappointed that Bay Area rationalists stopped talking about awesome technology, and instead talk about dangers. Of course AI will bring new dangers, but it only worries you if you have a post-COVID mental breakdown. Note that even university professors, who by definition are always wrong and only parrot government propaganda, are agreeing about the dangers of AI, which means it is now a part of the general woke anti-technology attitude. And of course the proposed solution is world government and secret police controlling everyone! Even the Bible says that we should fear the Antichrist more than we fear Armageddon.
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The charitable explanation is that he only pretends to be mindkilled, in order to make a political point.
I agree with your interpretation of Thiel. The guy is heavily involved in right-wing US politics, and that’s an essential piece of context for interpreting his actions and statements. He’s powerful, rich, smart and agentic. While we can interrogate his words at face value, it’s also fine to interpret them as a tool for manipulating perceptions of status. He has now written “Thiel’s summary of Bay Area rationalists,” and insofar as you’re exposed to and willing to defer to Thiel’s take, that is what your perception will be. More broadly, he’s setting what the values will be at the companies he runs, the political causes he supports, and garnering support for his vision by defining what he stands against. That’s a function separate from the quality of the reasoning in his words.
Thiel seems like a smart enough person to make a precise argument when he wants to, so when he loads his words with pop culture references and described his opponents as “the mouth of Sauron,” I think it’s right to start with the political analysis. Why bother reacting to Thiel if you’re mainly concerned with the content of his argument? It’s not like it’s especially new or original thinking. The reason to focus on Thiel is that you’re interested in his political maneuvers.
smart enough person to make a precise argument when he wants to, so when he loads his words with pop culture references and described his opponents as “the mouth of Sauron,” I think it’s right to start with the political analysis.
FWIW I’ve often heard him make precise arguments while also using LOTR references and metaphorical language like this, so I don’t think is is a sufficient trigger for “he must be making a political statement and not a reasoned one”.
I specifically said you can interpret his statement on the level of a reasoned argument. Based on your response, you could also update in favor of seeing even his more reason-flavored arguments as having political functions.
To me it sounds like Thiel is making a political argument against… diversity, wokeness, the general opposition against western civilization and technology… and pattern-matching everything to that. His argument sounds to me like this:
*
A true libertarian is never afraid of progress, he boldly goes forward and breaks things. You cannot separate dangerous research from useful research anyway; every invention is dual-use, so worrying about horrible consequences is silly, progress is always a net gain. The only reason people think about risks is political mindkilling.
I am disappointed that Bay Area rationalists stopped talking about awesome technology, and instead talk about dangers. Of course AI will bring new dangers, but it only worries you if you have a post-COVID mental breakdown. Note that even university professors, who by definition are always wrong and only parrot government propaganda, are agreeing about the dangers of AI, which means it is now a part of the general woke anti-technology attitude. And of course the proposed solution is world government and secret police controlling everyone! Even the Bible says that we should fear the Antichrist more than we fear Armageddon.
*
The charitable explanation is that he only pretends to be mindkilled, in order to make a political point.
I agree with your interpretation of Thiel. The guy is heavily involved in right-wing US politics, and that’s an essential piece of context for interpreting his actions and statements. He’s powerful, rich, smart and agentic. While we can interrogate his words at face value, it’s also fine to interpret them as a tool for manipulating perceptions of status. He has now written “Thiel’s summary of Bay Area rationalists,” and insofar as you’re exposed to and willing to defer to Thiel’s take, that is what your perception will be. More broadly, he’s setting what the values will be at the companies he runs, the political causes he supports, and garnering support for his vision by defining what he stands against. That’s a function separate from the quality of the reasoning in his words.
Thiel seems like a smart enough person to make a precise argument when he wants to, so when he loads his words with pop culture references and described his opponents as “the mouth of Sauron,” I think it’s right to start with the political analysis. Why bother reacting to Thiel if you’re mainly concerned with the content of his argument? It’s not like it’s especially new or original thinking. The reason to focus on Thiel is that you’re interested in his political maneuvers.
FWIW I’ve often heard him make precise arguments while also using LOTR references and metaphorical language like this, so I don’t think is is a sufficient trigger for “he must be making a political statement and not a reasoned one”.
I specifically said you can interpret his statement on the level of a reasoned argument. Based on your response, you could also update in favor of seeing even his more reason-flavored arguments as having political functions.