Draft: Models of Risks of Delivery Under Coronavirus

Link post

I’ve never con­sid­ered pro­phy­lac­ti­cally quaran­tin­ing my­self be­fore, but now that I’m con­sid­er­ing it I find it con­tains many more choices than I would have imag­ined. Let’s take my need to eat- I could go to a su­per­mar­ket, but that’s full of peo­ple. I could get de­liv­ery, but that still has a hu­man touch. I could eat my stores, but then I won’t have them later. This makes “when do I stop or­der­ing de­liv­ery?” an im­por­tant ques­tion. To at­tempt a more in­formed an­swer, I made a guessti­mate model. As of writ­ing this (2/​27) the num­bers are com­pletely made up: I just wanted to get com­ments on the un­der­ly­ing model. I’m work­ing to fill in the vari­ables with ac­tual an­swers. If you want to fol­low along you can do so at my Roam page. I am ex­ceed­ingly grate­ful for com­ments on ei­ther the ab­stract model or in­for­ma­tion that could help me fill in vari­ables.

Here are some gen­eral fac­tors go­ing into my think­ing:

  1. COVID-19 seems to have a long dor­mant pe­riod dur­ing which peo­ple are con­ta­gious but not symptomatic

  2. Some ad­di­tional por­tion of peo­ple have only mild symptoms

  3. The eco­nomics of pink-col­lar work are such that a lot of peo­ple will go to work un­til they are on death’s door.

  4. 1+2+3 = if the virus is preva­lent in the pop­u­la­tion, there will be a lot of con­ta­gious peo­ple han­dling stuff I or­der.

  5. The Amer­i­can gov­ern­ment’s mon­i­tor­ing pro­vides, at best, an ex­tremely lag­ging in­di­ca­tor of prevalence, and is at worst made up.

Here are images of the model and Roam page now, for posterity

Note that this shows food de­liv­ery as less risky than pack­age de­liv­ery, which is clearly wrong.