It was discussed above in comments – see buses example. In short, I actually care about periods, and 50 per cent is for “between 15 and 30” hours and other 50 per cent is for “above 30 hours”.
Thank you. It is clearer that way. ^^
I feel like it would be less confusing (more true?) to write “below 30” rather than “30” in the sentence I quoted. ;-)
Gott started this type of confusion than he claimed that Berlin wall will stay 14 more years and it actually did exactly that. A better claim would be “first tens of hours with some given credence”
I am curious how you got that number.
It seems to me that, for any reasonnable prior, it it more probable that there is 16 hours in a day rather than 30.
Maybe I am misunderstanding your “50 percent probability”?
It was discussed above in comments – see buses example. In short, I actually care about periods, and 50 per cent is for “between 15 and 30” hours and other 50 per cent is for “above 30 hours”.
Thank you. It is clearer that way. ^^ I feel like it would be less confusing (more true?) to write “below 30” rather than “30” in the sentence I quoted. ;-)
Gott started this type of confusion than he claimed that Berlin wall will stay 14 more years and it actually did exactly that. A better claim would be “first tens of hours with some given credence”