It seems that your proposal is different from what we at AIFP already do in two ways:
(1) Lots of forecasters, not just AIFP, would maintain their distributions on the same platform. That would be convenient for viewers wanting to compare forecasts.
(2) The setup would encourage more frequent minor updates (e.g. me adjusting a parameter down slightly because I’m impressed by a model) whereas right now we are bundling our updates together into quarterly updates.
Yes, exactly! On (2) in particular, the current system forces updates into 1/4ly posts onto the continuous nature of progress- something like a commit system would let you push an update (eg Opus impressing you) that changes your timelines without having to slot it in a 500-word Substack article and corroborate with Eli etc.
We could probably implement (2) unilaterally, just by, well, doing updates to our existing website whenever we feel like it instead of quarterly. Do you think that’s an improvement? I’ll consider it at least. Honestly a consideration for me is reducing friction/effort, so I’m wary of committing to something that might prove to be a pain.
Absolutely! I love your broad timelines idea on the AI Futures site (the one where you can change your probability distribution on what happens when) but it crashed when I tried doing it 🙁
I’m floored you actually responded haha. I’ll be working to get something running in the meantime, perhaps you could consider it then! Do check your inbox.
It seems that your proposal is different from what we at AIFP already do in two ways:
(1) Lots of forecasters, not just AIFP, would maintain their distributions on the same platform. That would be convenient for viewers wanting to compare forecasts.
(2) The setup would encourage more frequent minor updates (e.g. me adjusting a parameter down slightly because I’m impressed by a model) whereas right now we are bundling our updates together into quarterly updates.
Is this right or am I missing something?
Yes, exactly! On (2) in particular, the current system forces updates into 1/4ly posts onto the continuous nature of progress- something like a commit system would let you push an update (eg Opus impressing you) that changes your timelines without having to slot it in a 500-word Substack article and corroborate with Eli etc.
We could probably implement (2) unilaterally, just by, well, doing updates to our existing website whenever we feel like it instead of quarterly. Do you think that’s an improvement? I’ll consider it at least. Honestly a consideration for me is reducing friction/effort, so I’m wary of committing to something that might prove to be a pain.
Absolutely! I love your broad timelines idea on the AI Futures site (the one where you can change your probability distribution on what happens when) but it crashed when I tried doing it 🙁
I’m floored you actually responded haha. I’ll be working to get something running in the meantime, perhaps you could consider it then! Do check your inbox.