That’s a 12.5% return on 9 months. That’s pretty good but calling this “near free money” when you have to put up 25k to get it...
The payback might be lower if I put this on the stock market but if I’m wrong there, there’s 99% chance that’s only on when the lowest point was or how fast it will recover. I have to wait a bit longer to get 3k out of it but I still own something. Here, you lose, you lose everything.
Still, congrats on putting your money where your mouth is, I’d be curious to see if someone takes you up on it and how you operationalize the bet. Maybe this resolution criteria will help:
Thanks, I hadn’t seen that graph yet! I had only searched Manifold.
The odds of 1:7 imply a 12.5% chance of a crash. That’s far outside of the consensus on that graph. Though I also notice that their criteria for a “bust or winter” are much stricter than where I’d set the threshold for a crash.
That makes me wonder whether I should have selected a lower odd ratio (for a higher return on the upside). Regardless, this month I’m prepared to take this bet.
but calling this “near free money” when you have to put up 25k to get it...
Fair enough – you’d have to set aside this amount in your savings. You could still earn some interest from the bank, but that’s not much.
That’s a 12.5% return on 9 months. That’s pretty good but calling this “near free money” when you have to put up 25k to get it...
The payback might be lower if I put this on the stock market but if I’m wrong there, there’s 99% chance that’s only on when the lowest point was or how fast it will recover. I have to wait a bit longer to get 3k out of it but I still own something. Here, you lose, you lose everything.
Still, congrats on putting your money where your mouth is, I’d be curious to see if someone takes you up on it and how you operationalize the bet. Maybe this resolution criteria will help:
Thanks, I hadn’t seen that graph yet! I had only searched Manifold.
The odds of 1:7 imply a 12.5% chance of a crash. That’s far outside of the consensus on that graph. Though I also notice that their criteria for a “bust or winter” are much stricter than where I’d set the threshold for a crash.
That makes me wonder whether I should have selected a lower odd ratio (for a higher return on the upside). Regardless, this month I’m prepared to take this bet.
Fair enough – you’d have to set aside this amount in your savings. You could still earn some interest from the bank, but that’s not much.
Remmelt, if you wish, I’m happy to operationalize a bet. I think you’re wrong.