Thanks, I hadn’t seen that graph yet! I had only searched Manifold.
The odds of 1:7 imply a 12.5% chance of a crash. That’s far outside of the consensus on that graph. Though I also notice that their criteria for a “bust or winter” are much stricter than where I’d set the threshold for a crash.
That makes me wonder whether I should have selected a lower odd ratio (for a higher return on the upside). Regardless, this month I’m prepared to take this bet.
but calling this “near free money” when you have to put up 25k to get it...
Fair enough – you’d have to set aside this amount in your savings. You could still earn some interest from the bank, but that’s not much.
Thanks, I hadn’t seen that graph yet! I had only searched Manifold.
The odds of 1:7 imply a 12.5% chance of a crash. That’s far outside of the consensus on that graph. Though I also notice that their criteria for a “bust or winter” are much stricter than where I’d set the threshold for a crash.
That makes me wonder whether I should have selected a lower odd ratio (for a higher return on the upside). Regardless, this month I’m prepared to take this bet.
Fair enough – you’d have to set aside this amount in your savings. You could still earn some interest from the bank, but that’s not much.
Remmelt, if you wish, I’m happy to operationalize a bet. I think you’re wrong.