This feels like you’re engaging with the weakest argument against Israel’s recent aggression to make your point. You are not going to find many people who disagree with “violence against civilians is bad” on LessWrong.
It also strikes me as bizarre that this post mentions only the civilian casualties on one side and not the far greater (and rapidly growing) number of Palestinians who have been killed.
1.Kill many civilians in Israel in awful ways to ensure quick retaliation
2.Ensure that many Palestianian are perceived to be killed during retaliation (by locating own military infrastructure near civilian cites, preventing evacuation, overestimating number of killed)
3. Manipulate those who are using utilitarian calculation in the West into supporting them
4. Manipulate Muslim countries into declaring war with Israel
I thinks that many was killed, but less then was reported. However, only reports about killing matter in this plan, as such reports create anger and affect utility calculations.
It seems unlikely to me that anyone who thought through the current power dynamics would expect the other Muslim countries to be able to declare war on Israel and win it.
It seems to me more likely that derailing the peace process between countries like Saudi Arabia and Israel was the goal.
To not play into that plan and not make Hamas have success Israel would have had to mediate their response and there would have been nothing stopping them from doing so.
This feels like you’re engaging with the weakest argument against Israel’s recent aggression to make your point. You are not going to find many people who disagree with “violence against civilians is bad” on LessWrong.
It also strikes me as bizarre that this post mentions only the civilian casualties on one side and not the far greater (and rapidly growing) number of Palestinians who have been killed.
Hamas plan was exactly this:
1.Kill many civilians in Israel in awful ways to ensure quick retaliation
2.Ensure that many Palestianian are perceived to be killed during retaliation (by locating own military infrastructure near civilian cites, preventing evacuation, overestimating number of killed)
3. Manipulate those who are using utilitarian calculation in the West into supporting them
4. Manipulate Muslim countries into declaring war with Israel
5.Destroy Israel
Wait, are they merely perceived to be killed, or are they actually killed?
(If it is the latter, what made you write the former?)
I thinks that many was killed, but less then was reported. However, only reports about killing matter in this plan, as such reports create anger and affect utility calculations.
Does it matter for Villiam’s point whether 10x more Palestinian civilians are killed then Israeli, or 20x, or 30x?
For example, even if it’s perceived by inflated reports to be 30x, and the real figure is 10x, that’s still 10x more civilians in body bags.
It seems unlikely to me that anyone who thought through the current power dynamics would expect the other Muslim countries to be able to declare war on Israel and win it.
It seems to me more likely that derailing the peace process between countries like Saudi Arabia and Israel was the goal.
To not play into that plan and not make Hamas have success Israel would have had to mediate their response and there would have been nothing stopping them from doing so.