There are some studies suggesting that reported rates are usually about 10x below actual rates. Though I can’t find them right now (somebody else mentioned this in a separate discussion). If true, this would of course imply a very high chance of catching Lyme.
A recently released estimate based on insurance records suggests that each year approximately 476,000 Americans are diagnosed and treated for Lyme disease.1,2 This number is likely an over-estimate of actual infections because patients are sometimes treated presumptively in medical practice.
Similarly, they have: “Each year, approximately 30,000 cases of Lyme disease are reported to CDC by state health departments and the District of Columbia. However, this number does not reflect every case of Lyme disease that is diagnosed in the United States every year. Standard national surveillance is only one way that public health officials can track where a disease is occurring and with what frequency. Recent estimates using other methods suggest that approximately 476,000 people may get Lyme disease each year in the United States.”
There are some studies suggesting that reported rates are usually about 10x below actual rates. Though I can’t find them right now (somebody else mentioned this in a separate discussion). If true, this would of course imply a very high chance of catching Lyme.
The CDC thinks reported rates are about 1⁄10 the actual rates:
TickCheck’s estimates are based on the CDC’s ‘multiply by 10x’ heuristic, I think? https://www.tickcheck.com/stats/county/new-york/westchester-county/lyme
Similarly, they have: “Each year, approximately 30,000 cases of Lyme disease are reported to CDC by state health departments and the District of Columbia. However, this number does not reflect every case of Lyme disease that is diagnosed in the United States every year. Standard national surveillance is only one way that public health officials can track where a disease is occurring and with what frequency. Recent estimates using other methods suggest that approximately 476,000 people may get Lyme disease each year in the United States.”
https://www.cdc.gov/lyme/datasurveillance/index.html