In my experience, it’s also contextual—a fair chance of snow next week is a different distribution than a fair chance of getting a ticket of you park illegally in front of a cop.
I strongly suspect that the ambiguity is intentional (or at least useful) in most cases. In many cases, the lack of precision means that one is willing to make the statement at all, because it can’t be tracked or come back to haunt you. There are plenty of times I’ll give a vague prediction in a sort of “don’t make plans that ignore this possibility” way, but would plead ignorance if someone demanded a number.
I can see that— language evolving plausible deniability over time, due to the immense instinctive focus on fear of being called out for making a mistake.
In my experience, it’s also contextual—a fair chance of snow next week is a different distribution than a fair chance of getting a ticket of you park illegally in front of a cop.
I strongly suspect that the ambiguity is intentional (or at least useful) in most cases. In many cases, the lack of precision means that one is willing to make the statement at all, because it can’t be tracked or come back to haunt you. There are plenty of times I’ll give a vague prediction in a sort of “don’t make plans that ignore this possibility” way, but would plead ignorance if someone demanded a number.
I can see that— language evolving plausible deniability over time, due to the immense instinctive focus on fear of being called out for making a mistake.