Hm, do we even want that condition? It seems to me that the goal for the prediction markets is to indicate what research directions are worthwhile, and a research direction that can do something of general importance to science seems more likely to be able to do something important for alignment.
Presumably the alignment problem isn’t going to be solved in 4 years, so we’re going to have to go with imperfect indicators anyway, and have to accept whichever indicators we get.
Maybe specify that they resolve yes if they achieve something important for alignment, as opposed to general importance in the field of science?
Hm, do we even want that condition? It seems to me that the goal for the prediction markets is to indicate what research directions are worthwhile, and a research direction that can do something of general importance to science seems more likely to be able to do something important for alignment.
Presumably the alignment problem isn’t going to be solved in 4 years, so we’re going to have to go with imperfect indicators anyway, and have to accept whichever indicators we get.