Hm, do we even want that condition? It seems to me that the goal for the prediction markets is to indicate what research directions are worthwhile, and a research direction that can do something of general importance to science seems more likely to be able to do something important for alignment.
Presumably the alignment problem isn’t going to be solved in 4 years, so we’re going to have to go with imperfect indicators anyway, and have to accept whichever indicators we get.
Hm, do we even want that condition? It seems to me that the goal for the prediction markets is to indicate what research directions are worthwhile, and a research direction that can do something of general importance to science seems more likely to be able to do something important for alignment.
Presumably the alignment problem isn’t going to be solved in 4 years, so we’re going to have to go with imperfect indicators anyway, and have to accept whichever indicators we get.