For you it will be a minor piece of evidence, but I hope it pushes you in the right direction on this delicate issue. This is verbatim from my personal notes, some time ago, formulated directly from my own experience and understanding of the world, without hearing anything about “Bayesian wizardry” beyond the general background of Eliezer’s sequences:
Bayesian superpower
-> the ability to intuitively get Bayesian updates on evidence very precisely right
(huge returns across the board)
(learnable though elusive)
I am personally convinced that this is a real, specific, learnable, rare, and extremely valuable mental skill, and that I have greatly improved at it over the past 2 years. I have no way of proving to anyone that this is real, and I am super vague on how one would go about teaching it, but I nevertheless want to bless anyone who declares any level of interest in acquiring it.
Upon further reflection, you learning this would be extraordinarily cool because you might get a better shot at teaching it, even while being worse at the object level skill than some people.
I believe this skill indeed exists, is learnable and is quite valuable. I think I have some of it, but that it is possible to have far more of it than I currently have, and it’s about gradual training and improvement, continuous deliberate practice and such, rather than a boolean or something that clicks at once. Extensive interaction with prediction markets (on various things) certainly helped a lot.
For you it will be a minor piece of evidence, but I hope it pushes you in the right direction on this delicate issue. This is verbatim from my personal notes, some time ago, formulated directly from my own experience and understanding of the world, without hearing anything about “Bayesian wizardry” beyond the general background of Eliezer’s sequences:
I am personally convinced that this is a real, specific, learnable, rare, and extremely valuable mental skill, and that I have greatly improved at it over the past 2 years. I have no way of proving to anyone that this is real, and I am super vague on how one would go about teaching it, but I nevertheless want to bless anyone who declares any level of interest in acquiring it.
Upon further reflection, you learning this would be extraordinarily cool because you might get a better shot at teaching it, even while being worse at the object level skill than some people.
I believe this skill indeed exists, is learnable and is quite valuable. I think I have some of it, but that it is possible to have far more of it than I currently have, and it’s about gradual training and improvement, continuous deliberate practice and such, rather than a boolean or something that clicks at once. Extensive interaction with prediction markets (on various things) certainly helped a lot.