I believe this skill indeed exists, is learnable and is quite valuable. I think I have some of it, but that it is possible to have far more of it than I currently have, and it’s about gradual training and improvement, continuous deliberate practice and such, rather than a boolean or something that clicks at once. Extensive interaction with prediction markets (on various things) certainly helped a lot.
I believe this skill indeed exists, is learnable and is quite valuable. I think I have some of it, but that it is possible to have far more of it than I currently have, and it’s about gradual training and improvement, continuous deliberate practice and such, rather than a boolean or something that clicks at once. Extensive interaction with prediction markets (on various things) certainly helped a lot.