Don’t Build Fal­lout Shelters

Nate Silver will do an AMA on Red­dit on Tuesday

How to Be Oversurprised

[SEQ RERUN] Com­plex Novelty

Meetup : Van­cou­ver Fash­ion for Rationalists

Mo­ral­ity is Awesome

[SEQ RERUN] High Challenge

Macro, not Micro

[Dis­cus­sion] The Kelly crite­rion and con­se­quences for de­ci­sion mak­ing un­der uncertainty

[LINK] Why tak­ing ideas se­ri­ously is prob­a­bly a bad thing to do

Harsanyi’s So­cial Ag­gre­ga­tion The­o­rem and what it means for CEV

[Link] The school of sci­ence fiction

Meetup : Pader­born Meetup, Jan­uary 9th

A re­ply to Mark Linsen­mayer about philosophy

Re: Se­cond-Order Logic: The Controversy

Pigliucci’s com­ment on Yud­kowsky’s and Dai’s stance on moral­ity and logic

[SEQ RERUN] Prole­gom­ena to a The­ory of Fun

Meetup : Van­cou­ver Me­taethics and Really Trying

Just One Sentence

How to up­date P(x this week), upon hear­ing P(x next month) = 99.5%?

Se­cond-Order Logic: The Controversy

Weekly LW Mee­tups: Bielefeld, Mont­pel­lier, Vancouver

How to Teach Stu­dents to Not Guess the Teacher’s Pass­word?

How to Teach Stu­dents to Not Guess the Teacher’s Pass­word?

[SEQ RERUN] Vi­su­al­iz­ing Eutopia

Meetup : Buf­falo Meetup

Case Study: the Death Note Script and Bayes

In­ter­per­sonal and in­trap­er­sonal util­ity comparisons

PSA: Please list your refer­ences, don’t just link them

Can in­finite quan­tities ex­ist? A philo­soph­i­cal approach

How much to spend on a high-var­i­ance op­tion?

My Best Case vs Your Worst Case

2012: Year in Review

[Link] Hey Ex­traverts: Enough is Enough

[SEQ RERUN] For The Peo­ple Who Are Still Alive

Ap­plied Ra­tion­al­ity Work­shops: Jan 25-28 and March 1-4

Meetup : 13th Jan­uary Lon­don Meetup

How to Disen­tan­gle the Past and the Future

Ra­tion­al­ity Quotes Jan­uary 2013

[Link] On the Height of a Field

[SEQ RERUN] You Only Live Twice

Poli­tics Dis­cus­sion Thread Jan­uary 2013

How not to sort by a com­pli­cated fre­quen­tist formula

What is the best pa­per ex­plain­ing the su­pe­ri­or­ity of Bayesi­anism over fre­quen­tism?

[Link] TEDx talk of An­ders Sand­berg on the Fermi “para­dox”

Some scary life ex­ten­sion dilemmas

New Year’s Pre­dic­tion Thread (2013)

You can’t sig­nal to rubes

Gaug­ing of in­ter­est: LW stock pick­ing?

Open Thread, Jan­uary 1-15, 2013