ursusminimus

Cost vs. Profit Cen­ter Mindset

ur­sus­min­i­mus’s Shortform

• ursusminimus 19 Feb 2025 20:02 UTC

  4 points

  0

  on: ur­sus­min­i­mus’s Shortform

  I assume there is something in the canon, written 15 years ago, along similar lines, but here is a thought:

  Assuming the resolution of the Fermi Paradox is that advanced alien civilizations exist, but choose to say hidden from us (for whatever reason), the most logical point of breaking the cover would be as humanity approaches ASI. It seems that ASI comes earlier in the tech tree than space travel or similar technological breakthroughs that would also warrant breaking cover.

  The corollary to that is, of course, that when the first civilization achieves an aligned ASI, this triggers the race for the light cone to prevent others building unaligned ASIs.

  So, if P(saved from ASI by aliens|advanced alien civilizations exist and are close enough) is high (e.g. 95%?), what is P(saved from ASI by aliens)?

• ursusminimus 10 Feb 2024 20:58 UTC

  4 points

  2

  on: Believ­ing In

  I was not aware of this distincion before, and I think it is correct. However, in practice I think (believe?) this can’t be discussed in isolation without considering simulacrum levels. My impression is that often people don’t make object-level statements when they say “I believe in”, but rather want to associate themselves with something.

  Maybe a rough example:

  • “I believe that you will succeed”—object level, prediction about high probability of desired outcome

  • “I believe in you” (Simulacrum Level 1) - as discussed here, “I am willing to support you/​invest resources into you”

  • “I believe in you” (Simulacrum Level 2) - I want to appear supportive to be considered a good friend by you, regardless of my willingness to actually invest resources if you demand them at some point.

  • “I believe in you” (Simulacrum Level 3) - I say this because this statement is in the cluster of things that the category “good friend” is correlated with

  • “I believe in you” (Simulacrum Level 4) - I say this because this statement is in the cluster of things that I believe the high status group thinks the category “good friend” is correlated with

  Now that I think about it the Simulacrum Levels don’t quite match with the definition, but I hope the general idea is clear. Maybe it helps to expand the framework.

• ursusminimus 8 Oct 2020 15:13 UTC

  17 points

  0

  on: Bab­ble challenge: 50 ways to es­cape a locked room

  That was fun. Made me sign up after years of lurking :)

  Hope I will get the spoiler right

  1. Kick in the door

  2. Break the window with a fist, climb out

  3. Dive roll through the window

  4. Front flip through the window

  5. Throw your phone with enough force to break the door

  6. Throw your phone with enough force to break the wall

  7. Ram head first through the wall

  8. Call your mother to come get you

  9. Call the emergency numbers so someone gets you

  10. Get a date via tinder, then let them get you out.

  11. Convince a random stranger on some obscure web forum to get you out

  12. Hack into the buildings security via WiFi and unlock the door electronically

  13. Let your phone emit resonant sounds to break the window glass

  14. Open the window, yell loudly to get a passer-by to get you out

  15. Climb through the air vents

  16. Use the phone to dig a hole in the floor

  17. Break your phone, use the glass shards to carve a hole in the door

  18. Order a eascape kit from Amazon, get it delivered you you, realize you don’t need it cause the delivery guy opened the door

  19. Meditate until you have an out of body experience and leave the room

  20. Start a cult online, let your followers free you

  21. Hack a launching rocket, redirect it, let it crash in a way that it destroys a wall but does not kill you

  21. Make the singularity happen, upload your mind to the net, leave that way

  22. Incite a violent revolution, hope that the chaos will ensure the building gets damaged and leave.

  23. Provoke Trump into starting a nuclear war on twitter, leave after the building is destroyed.

  24. Hire a drug cartel tunnel boring team to dig you out

  25. Carefully disassemble the ceiling tiles to realize there is no roof and leave

  26. Google “how to escape a locked room” and follow the instructions

  27. Check the less wrong babble challenge on the same topic for new ideas, pick the one you like most

  28. Realize that your jacket has an integrated survival tool kit (you are THAT guy) and pick the lock with the mandatory lock pick utility

  29. Simply teleport yourself through sheer power of will

  30. Change your aggregate state to fluid, flow through the gaps in the door, change shape back.

  31. Use your laser eye superpower to cut a hole through the roof

  32. Realize you are superman and fly through the roof.

  33. Hack the electronic door by making an elaborate electromagnetic pattern by manipulating your phone

  34. Order a Uber/​Taxi, ask the driver to open the door from the outside on pickup

  35. Mediate for 10 years, transcend reality, walk through the wall on the last day because walls are socially constructed.

  36. Wake up from the bad dream.

  37. Panic, spend 7 years in the room, then suddenly the simulation encounters a bug and you appear somewhere else.

  38. Lick the walls that are lined with some kind of drug that gives you super strength, use that strength to get out.

  39. Yell and hit the door until someone outside hears you and helps you get out.

  40. Run around in circles at such high speed that the heat you create will melt the building around you.

  41. Eat the walls because they are made out of candy.

  42. Fart. Short-circuit the phone to cause a spark, igniting the gas. The explosion damages the door, leave.

  43. Become a black hole, imploding the building around you. Turn back into your regular form at precisely the moment when the building is gone, but nothing else.

  44. Realize the phone’s battery is powerful enough to last to many years—short circuit it on the metal door frame to melt it away.

  45. Jump out of the window, using your jacket as a parachute.

  46. Wait until someone else randomly comes by to enter the room, leave. You have 10 years after all.

  47. Wait until the inevitable errors during construction present themselves in the form of the door falling off. Leave.

  48. Train a neural network to generate escape plans for you, follow the instructions.

  49. Join a “locked in a room anonymous” self help group online, follow the instructions the new member flyer.

  50. Become a famous influencer on Instagram, make a contract with some advertising company, wait for them to come by to sign the paperwork.