Subsistence farmers don’t trade for their sustenance, they farm what they subsist upon. So perhaps the moral is do be a subsistence farmer...
trist
In such cases I’ll say, “Oh! Interesting… how does that work exactly?” It seems to work out alright, and I would guess that other methods of asking for more information without implying that their statement is false are equally effective.
Are cryopreserved humans l-zombies?
keeping in mind that if they were an l-zombie, they would still say “I have conscious experiences, so clearly I can’t be an l-zombie”?
As well they should. For l-zombies to do anything they need to be run, whereupon they stop being l-zombies.
The adventurer probably does the most for me, finding new paths and places and people brings such delight. My conscious identification as a person sidestepped a bout of gender-confusion when I realised I hadn’t ever identified as man or woman, merely with pieces of each.
I’m less sure about, say, my combination of someone who “gets it done” and “doesn’t show imperfect work”. The majority of interesting work that gets done is done coincidentally, because it needs doing, and isn’t up to my standards. I’ve been experimenting with ways to overcome this, but with social commitments to share interesting work, not with identity changes.
I have been for a very long time a cryptic, who doesn’t bare theirself to strangers, much less the public, and likes to play with words more than express clearly, I’m slowly replacing that with “an open person”. I conciously push to show a more vulnerable bit of myself before I normally would these days, so far just with people that I imagine eventually sharing with anyway. I got burned pretty badly my second time trying that, but the the first time had me already completely convinced. Plus, I never could have written this if I hadn’t.
I’ve been working on a tool like this. Done well it would be applicable to more than just debate… If folks want to collaborate, I’m interested.
Another way to avoid the paradox is to care about other people’s satisfaction (more complicated than that, but that’s not the point) from their point of view, which encompasses their frame of reference.
Another way perhaps is to restate implementing improvements as soon as possible as maximizing total goodness in (the future of) the universe. Particularly, if an improvement could only be implemented once, but it would be twice as effective tomorrow instead of today, do it tomorrow.
Assigning probabilities of falsehood is counter-intuitive to many, using two statements would allow for the typical direct assignment of truth.
You can still assign probabilities of truth with three statements, they would merely sum to two instead of one.
I’ve never used Beeminder, but I find social commitment works well instead. Even teling someone who has no way to check aside from asking me helps a lot. That might be less effective if you’re willing to lie though.
An alternative would be to exchange commitments with a friend, proportional to your incomes...
The people who gain the most from structured arguments are the people who don’t need to sift through ten blog posts and hundreds of comments. The gains for the writers are more along the lines of less time reiterating arguments in different contexts.
How can we share evidence effectively? More generally, how can aspiring human rationalists make group decisions?
I suppose my actual belief is that flush toilets are a mistake outside of urban areas, I don’t have much experience with urban living or what other poop strategies could work with it.
Advantages, flush toilets:
Provide easy long distance transport of human waste in urban environments.
Exchanges weekly-to-yearly chores for purchased services.
Disadvantages, flush toilets:
Create additional dependency on water (and by extension outside water districts, electricity).
Turn (vast amounts of) drinking water into black water.
Create a waste product from human manure, which is a valuable resource (fertile soil) when dealt with properly.
Adds significantly to the cost of housing (especially outside sewer districts).
Update on the collaboration:
One person has contacted me so far. We’re each prototyping to our own vision with plans to share our results (with eachother at least) at some point. We’d love to exchange previews with more people, please don’t let our working on it stop you from prototyping your own vision of how it might work.
An addendum to [1], social security tax in the US is capped, with the cutoff being around $105k of individual income, so there may be a local dip there in percentage where the increasing income tax doesn’t balance the 11% that goes to social security before that point.
Weak evidence though, easily overcome by being open to whatever things your tribe denounces.
While I enjoyed reading this, amused and intrigued, I am somewhat hesitant to accept it, lacking a search for traits that are anti-correlated and without exploring alternative theories explaining these traits. I’m also a little confused by
I predicted that if my theory is correct then Harry would have a narcissistic personality. To test this, I found a list of personality traits that describe a narcissist (by Googling “children of narcissistic parents” and clicking the first link),
wouldn’t this be a list of traits of children of narcissistic parents? If it’s not, why did you use a different list to determine if Petunia was narcissistic?
On the topic of the specific traits, we could use a lot more information about which traits are useful and which aren’t. I understand there are a number of folks around here who have worked to acquire some traits, self-awareness and mindfulness (which are very clearly useful) come to mind, but they appear (very roughly) to be on a different level than, say, need for praise. With that, thank you for inspiring me to look more into them.
If someone starts a meetup in a small town, it would not be difficult for them to get a newspaper article talking about the event. Though I’m not sure Wikipedians would consider little-tiny-newspaper to be adequate coverage...
Translate it to “In x% of new non-urban houses, there are options better than flush toilets.” My confidence in my confidence assignment isn’t very high yet though, so I am quite open to being overconfident.
And obviously both lists are non-exhaustive.
Flush toilets handle large numbers of people for a long time fairly easily.
Flush toilets get clogged.
New datapoint on mass downvoting:
Sometime between this comment and my last comment, approximately all of my comments were downvoted exactly once. Seems kinda strange.
(I don’t have anything that I want to post to Main prepared anyway, so karma’s kinda a moot point, but I hoped this could be helpful if anyone ever does look into it, and times are included in downvote logs.)
Edit: Hehe! And within ten minutes, this one joined the rest of them...
There has been major progress with at least one autoimmune disorder over the last 30 years. Even if there has not been an outright cure, the life expectancy of someone with HIV/AIDS, who can get treatment, is far greater now.
edit: clarifying, in case the downvoter didn’t understand the combination I responded to.
Irrationality Game: (meta, I like this idea)
Flush toilets are a horrible mistake. 7b/99%