The idea that if Ukraine only manages to retake all its former territory that means it’s safe from future attacks from Russia is faulty especially if there’s a lot of resistance in Crimea to Ukrainian rule.
The idea that if Ukraine make a peace deal with Russia means it’s safe from future attacks from Russia is even more faulty. In fact Ukraine made a peace deal with Russia in 2015. And I’m not even talking about Budapest Memorandum.
I think if you believe that the borders of Ukraine don’t matter and what matters is nuclear risk, then it’s useful to be able to make a peace deal that does not back Putin into a corner where using nuclear weapons is the only thing that might keep him in power.
Borders don’t matter in and of themselves. But they matter to Putin. Somewhat. Therefore they can be used as a tool to prevent him from being encouraged to continue his conquest.
I’ve talked to a number of people living in Crimea over the years. Some were pro-Russian, some were pro-Ukrainian, some undecided. Here are some observations.
People weren’t particularly afraid of Ukraine. But since 2014 literally everyone is afraid to say openly anything that’s not supportive of Russia. Fear is everywhere. So much for accurate polling data. Since February 2022 people became much more afraid of Russia. I talked to people who fled Crimea after the announcement of mobilization. They were in panic.
Since 2014 a lot of people left Crimea. Instead a lot of Russians moved to Crimea. People living in Crimea now and Crimean people in 2014 are two completely different sets of people. It feels like one third of people in Crimea are from Russia now.
I know people who were born in Crimea and still were forced to go through a lengthy, complicated and humiliating procedure of proving they are Crimean enough to be allowed to live in Crimea. I know a person who went through an unnecessarily humiliating questioning by Russian FSB for no other reason than going from Crimea to Kyiv.
Now more general thoughts.
One doesn’t have to be an expert to see which side caused more death. Mariupol. All war crimes allegedly perpetrated by Ukraine pale in comparison to an entire city leveled to the ground. While people were still there.
All that said nothing I said above or you said in your post matters. Nuclear risk and global security matter. I understand why in politics you have to first prove someone’s not a good guy before suggesting to stop helping. I did not expect to hear something like this here. I just don’t see how the conclusion you’re making follows from the statements you make in the post even if all of them are true.
For some reason public discourse in the Western countries gravitates towards either “let’s stop helping Ukraine” with weak justifications like “will of the Crimean people” and “Ukrainians aren’t saints too” or going all in up to directly fighting Russian army on the ground. I think policy of helping Ukraine but not engaging Russian army directly (basically just sticking to what’s already being done) is superior to either extreme.