TheSimplestExplanation

• TheSimplestExplanationApr 23, 2021, 11:02 AM

  1 point

  on: How to Make Your Own Vac­cine Pass­port (if you’re a U.S. cit­i­zen)

  Ha, so we can implement immunity passports!

  But how many people are actually interested in privacy preserving immunity passports?

• TheSimplestExplanationApr 23, 2021, 9:35 AM

  5 points

  in reply to: lsusr’s comment on: Covid 4/​22: Cri­sis in India

  I had an unstated assumption that even if direction of the effect was inverted the change wouldn’t be significant enough to account for the data.

  I agree.

  or a change to the measurement

  Given the apparent under reporting, I’d say no.

  95% confidence that India fails to get B1.617 under control before it burns through the population.

  It seems like people will panic and isolate. Don’t know how much that could or will change in India though.

  According to OWD the reproduction rate is 1.5 . So non pharmacological interventions might make a difference, conversely abandoning non pharmacological interventions might have contributed to the current outbreak.

• TheSimplestExplanationApr 22, 2021, 7:57 PM

  8 points

  in reply to: lsusr’s comment on: Covid 4/​22: Cri­sis in India

  Summer. Seasonal change doesn’t make sense because infections ought to go down, not up.

  AFAIK seasonality works different in the tropics. It’s worst in the rainy season.

  Complete breakdown of society on the scale of a civil war. If this happened I would have heard about it.

  Weren’t there religious & political events that may have contributed?

  I predict with 98% confidence that the exponential growth is caused by a new strain,

  Yes I came across this graph

  

  What links here?

  • Covid-19 in In­dia: Why didn’t it hap­pen ear­lier? by Sherrinford (Apr 27, 2021, 7:13 PM; 14 points)

• TheSimplestExplanationApr 17, 2021, 12:28 PM

  1 point

  on: An­drés Gómez Emils­son at the SlateS­tarCodex On­line Meetup

  2021-4-25

• TheSimplestExplanationApr 7, 2021, 11:58 AM

  6 points

  0

  on: I’m from a par­allel Earth with much higher co­or­di­na­tion: AMA

  Eliezer Yudkowsky: Right. They try not to present people with fantasy worlds more attractive than reality. Respectable fantasy novels will generally start the protagonist off with a disadvantage and force them to reform some awful place, for the same reason.

  Wait a minute...

  Also, where is the handshake !!??

• TheSimplestExplanationApr 1, 2021, 10:45 AM

  7 points

  on: Why We Launched LessWrong.SubStack

  Clippy gives good advice, where can I hire him?

• TheSimplestExplanationMar 25, 2021, 6:04 PM

  14 points

  in reply to: johnswentworth’s comment on: Another RadVac Test­ing Update

  They’re “research use only” and hard to get your hands on if you’re in the US, but if you’re outside the US (or have a friend outside the US willing to help) it should be easier.

  I’m willing to help.

• TheSimplestExplanationMar 24, 2021, 5:38 PM

  4 points

  on: Another RadVac Test­ing Update

  This test put that possibility to rest: after snorting just the peptides, I was very obviously congested for a couple days, in basically the same way as after the vaccine doses.

  That seems pretty strong evidence to me.

  I would do a placebo control too, just to make sure.

• TheSimplestExplanationMar 18, 2021, 8:45 PM

  2 points

  in reply to: Dirichlet-to-Neumann’s comment on: Covid 3/​18: An Ex­pected Quan­tity of Blood Clots

  Isn’t that even more stupid than the legal argument?

• TheSimplestExplanationMar 18, 2021, 8:43 PM

  1 point

  on: Covid 3/​18: An Ex­pected Quan­tity of Blood Clots

  The CDC suggests child prison social distancing requirements could soon change, and be reduced from six feet to three feet. You see, there was one recent study that said with full and proper masking that three feet distancing was “safe.”

  Of course, with full masking the distance doesn’t matter.

• TheSimplestExplanationMar 15, 2021, 9:25 PM

  1 point

  on: Covid 3/​12: New CDC Guidelines Available

  Presumably the solution is to ask the question, then if someone says yes to check if it’s chronic or otherwise explained before escorting them automatically out of the building, or at least to say ‘non-chronic’ or ‘new’ or something. I would actually want to avoid ‘explained’ here and at most let a follow-up determine what counts as explained.

  Or you could not deny treatment to symptomatic people, whether they have COVID or not.

  I continue to be rather baffled by the whole ‘wait and see’ attitude, unless it’s another case of avoiding blame and social pressure, in this case by avoiding taking a position, and doesn’t cash out to anything at all. What are we waiting to see, at this point? We’ve given about 100 million doses in the United States and everything’s going great so literally what do these people worry they are going to see? Is it basically this?

  That seems like an intuitive version(“native implementation”?) of a safety trial.

  We Have Established as Common Knowledge That Andrew Cuomo Is The Worst

  Congratulations.

  Fun Fact: Germany stopped AstraZeneca vaccinations as well.

• TheSimplestExplanationMar 15, 2021, 9:16 PM

  1 point

  on: Covid 3/​12: New CDC Guidelines Available

  Then there’s that to normalize that anywhere is to normalize it anywhere.

  everywhere?

  Then there’s the question of Prizer’s CEO, who it seems is not vaccinated, and this forced him to postpone a trip to Israel.

  *Pfizer.

• TheSimplestExplanationFeb 25, 2021, 2:04 PM

  2 points

  in reply to: kithpendragon’s comment on: Yes, words can cause harm

  The article is rather vague but seems to imply/​say that words alone can cause harm. Which is not the case in these examples.

• TheSimplestExplanationFeb 21, 2021, 4:46 PM

  3 points

  in reply to: TheSimplestExplanation’s comment on: The Sin­gu­lar­ity War—Part 4

  https://​​en.wikipedia.org/​​wiki/​​Long-Term_Capital_Management

• TheSimplestExplanationFeb 21, 2021, 4:45 PM

  3 points

  in reply to: Randomized, Controlled’s comment on: The Sin­gu­lar­ity War—Part 4

  It’s a play on LTCM.

• TheSimplestExplanationFeb 20, 2021, 3:37 PM

  3 points

  on: The Sin­gu­lar­ity War—Part 4

  “It’s okay. I could use a few laughs right now,” said Caesar.

  And that is just what we get.

• TheSimplestExplanationFeb 20, 2021, 10:38 AM

  5 points

  on: The Sin­gu­lar­ity War—Part 4

  Hah! Great!

• TheSimplestExplanationFeb 17, 2021, 10:58 PM

  1 point

  in reply to: ChristianKl’s comment on: Bit­coin and ESG Investing

  Store of value is an important function too.

  Even if you want a crypto-currency there are solutions that more effective and don’t burn as much unnecessary energy.

  Sure it’s great if they work out. But switching may be a coordination problem as well. I’m not sure why, but it hasn’t happened yet.

• TheSimplestExplanationFeb 17, 2021, 10:50 PM

  1 point

  in reply to: Ericf’s comment on: Bit­coin and ESG Investing

  Specifically, they can threaten your trading partner with reprisals, and the whoke point of crypto is that it keeps a public log of all transactions forever.

  Well it’s at least pseudonymous.

• TheSimplestExplanationFeb 16, 2021, 3:36 PM

  1 point

  in reply to: ChristianKl’s comment on: Bit­coin and ESG Investing

  But luxury yachts aren’t a good comparison. PoW-coins are a technology for coordination among humans. They need this energy to work. I don’t think that is a general argument against them.