I agree that it isn’t particularly private, except perhaps in the sense that you technically aren’t effecting other people at the time of decision as there aren’t those other people yet. But, also, private doesn’t mean limited to a solitary individual, or else people wouldn’t speak of sex being private. I guess I’d define private as an event that one can limit the involvement (including knowledge of) to those of their choosing. Perhaps possible with raising children but not the norm.
Randy_M
“Also note that making children more expensive to raise is also a way to redistribute children towards richer parents” … and those with poor long term thinking/working on outdated information. ETA: As is pointed out below (in my current sorting scheme)
Nor does it mean that their genes are ‘best’ for the species to have in our environment, although of course that’s unpalatable to say on the whole about anyone.
Well, I’m not going to feel qualified to discuss whether the word as is commonly used connotes justified secrecy & non-intrusion or simply the fact of the matter, but it would be useful to have words for both meanings (or else taboo it and spell out the justification for non-intrusion/investigation when debating whether someone’s privacy is a suitable excuse).
Right. Most poeple disagree with the premise “Being in a simulation is/can be made to be indistinguishable from reality from the point of view of the simulee.”
Edit: And by most people, I mean my analysis of why I intuitively reject the conclusion, not any discussion with other, let alone 3.6+ billion people or statistically representative sampling, etc.
In college I occasionally mixed up a couple similar looking girls. I ended up marrying one of them. It worked out pretty well for me but I don’t think it’s a universally applicable heuristic.
Rarer than elsewhere? That’s not my impression, at least of universities with co-ed dorms, which is probably the main and critical difference between them and Viliam’s Monastaries.
I’ve heard similiar stories before that ended up being due to the westerner’s credulity rather than the islander’s ignorance.
More like “If I can’t keep two people straight, marry one of them. That ought to provide compelling incentives to do so, not to mention ample opportunity for increased familiarity.”
I think enough people are non-reductionist/materialist to have doubt about whether a simulation can be said to have experiences. And we don’t exactly have demonstration of this at this time, do we? I mean, in the example cited, Cvilization PC games, there aren’t individuals there to have experiences (unless one counts the ai which is running the entire faction), rather there are some blips in databases incrementing the number of units here or there, or raising the population from an abstract 6 to 7. I don’t think people will be able to take simulation theory seriously until they have personal interaction with a convincing ai.
That’s probably as much an answer as I can give for any of the questsions, other than that I don’t see why we can assume that magic super computers are plausible. Related, I don’t know if I trust my intuition or reasoning as to whether an infinite simulation will resemble realty in every way (assuming the supercomputer is running equations and databases, etc, rather than actually reconstucting a universe atom by atom or something).
It feels like you’re asking me to believe that a map is the same as the territory if it is a good enough map. I know that’s just an analogy, but I have a hard time comprehending the sentence that “reality is the solution to/ equations and nothing more” (as opposed to even “reality is predictable by equations”).
This is probably not the LW approved answer, but then, I did say most people and not most LW-ers.
I am not seeing the rationality in Klein’s analysis.
“If you told me I had a 35 percent chance of winning a million dollars tomorrow, I’d be excited.” The difference is that presumably he [the speaker] could have a near infinite number of things happen to him. So picking one and giving it much greater odds than one could reasonably expect (given most contests that grant that kind of monetary rewards) does siginify a pretty unusual situation which he should be thrilled about.
However, for all intents and purposes, the winner of the election is a binary choice. (Let’s say we have 999 of a 1000 units of probability to distribute between two candidates). I think it is a given that both candidates at the level of the general election are pretty excited to be there, given that they have radically greater odds than the rest of the eligible population.
But all that should be taken for granted by any adult with any familiarity with the system. Thus, a model that predicts one candidate over the other at 60⁄40, let alone 75⁄25, odds/confidence level is not any kind of good, exciting news for the other guy [Romney in Silver’s model]. Of course Silver isn’t ruling out the possibility. And the stakes are high, certainly greater than a million dollars. But nonetheless, 35% to win a million dollars when you didn’t know the possibility existed is different than 35% to win the presidency when you are one of only two candidates.
Edit: Just thought of a better way to phrase the above—Whether news of 35% odds is good & exciting or bad & dispiriting depends on one’s priors. I would assume the challenger in a pretty divided country would have had 40-45% odds to begin with and wouldn’t be excited to update downwards.
And if you specify more than one capability, nearly everyone does.
I think people tell you that when you aren’t as good at the inside the box things as your competitors and need to take a risk to set yourself apart. Thinking outside the box is a gamble, which may be the only shot for someone in a losing position. Of course, that’s from a business perspective, where I’ve tended to hear it more. For a science/truth seeking perspective I’d say “Don’t forget to look at the box from outside from time to time.”
Indeed. One should have an open mind but a very judicious customs agent at the gate.
From the quote, it sounds like its a question of whether odds lower than one’s prior should increase or decrease excitement when the stakes are high.
Okay, that may be the intent of the argument. Not sure I agree with that, either, though. Silver’s model is presumably built from several factors. If in the end it gives a prediction that doesn’t come true, then there are likely factors that were considered incorrectly or left out. The “70 % odds” is basically saying “I’m 30% confident that the outcome of the model is wrong.” If Obama ends up losing, that doesn’t mean Silver knows nothing, but it is evidence that the model was flawed in some meaningful way, as he now suspects. That is, we should update on ‘Silver’s model was off’ slightly more than ‘Silver’s model was accurate’, despite the fact that he had less than 100% confidence in it.
It may be incomplete. Do you have a place for Mercy?
“theories of justice are attempting to use their axioms to pin down something that is already there”
So in other words, duty, justice, mercy—morality words—are basically logical transformations that transform the state of the universe (or a particular circumstance) into an ought statement.
Just as we derive valid conlcusions from premises using logical statements, we derive moral obligations from premises using moral statements.
The term ‘utility funcion’ seems less novel now (novel as in, a departure from traditional ethics).
Okay (though to me that sounds like he has many related models that differ based on certain variables he isn’t certain about… maybe that is being pointlessly pedantic) but would you agree that a R victory would be evidence that the model needs adjustment, stronger evidence than that the model was was reliable as is? If not, what if it was 99 to 1, instead of 60 to 40? Just trying to clarify my own thinking here.
“Just keep doing what you’re doing, and you’ll eventually drive your rental car directly into the sea”
This works as a rhetorical device, but if one were to try to accurately weigh two options against each other, it might pay not to use reductio ad absurdium and have something like “Continue on in the wrong direction until the ETA were passed or events made the incorrect direction obvious, then try a new route, having lost up to ETA.” Which is still bad, but if no safe/available places to stop for directions presented themselves, might not be the worst option. But of course, by using the skill in the article, it would be a considered risk, and not an unexpected occurance.
Anyway, useful and easy to follow piece and I look forward to the next.