Okay (though to me that sounds like he has many related models that differ based on certain variables he isn’t certain about… maybe that is being pointlessly pedantic) but would you agree that a R victory would be evidence that the model needs adjustment, stronger evidence than that the model was was reliable as is? If not, what if it was 99 to 1, instead of 60 to 40?
Just trying to clarify my own thinking here.
I don’t know much about the internals of his model, but I would say ‘it depends.’ I’m sure you can use his model to make predictions of the form ‘given Romney victory, what should the final electoral map look like’?, etc, but I’m not sure if the public has that kind of access. Certainly questions like that can be used to probe the model after a Romney or Obama win. If either candidate wins ‘in the wrong way’ (i.e. carries the wrong states), its obviously stronger evidence the model is wrong than we could get from just Romney winning.
‘given Romney victory, what should the final electoral map look like’?
He sometimes selected such maps in blog posts, and generally has one with all of the most likely outcomes, but these maps are not always-and-automatically publicly accessible, so far as I know.
Okay (though to me that sounds like he has many related models that differ based on certain variables he isn’t certain about… maybe that is being pointlessly pedantic) but would you agree that a R victory would be evidence that the model needs adjustment, stronger evidence than that the model was was reliable as is? If not, what if it was 99 to 1, instead of 60 to 40? Just trying to clarify my own thinking here.
I don’t know much about the internals of his model, but I would say ‘it depends.’ I’m sure you can use his model to make predictions of the form ‘given Romney victory, what should the final electoral map look like’?, etc, but I’m not sure if the public has that kind of access. Certainly questions like that can be used to probe the model after a Romney or Obama win. If either candidate wins ‘in the wrong way’ (i.e. carries the wrong states), its obviously stronger evidence the model is wrong than we could get from just Romney winning.
He sometimes selected such maps in blog posts, and generally has one with all of the most likely outcomes, but these maps are not always-and-automatically publicly accessible, so far as I know.