So to summarise. On LW the story is often told as follows: CDTers don’t care about winning (at least not in any natural sense) and they avoid the problems raised by NP by saying the scenario is unfair. This makes the CDTer sound not just wrong but also so foolish it’s hard to understand why the CDTer exists.
But expanded to show what the CDT actually means, this becomes: CDTers agree that winning is what matters to rationality but because they’re interested in rational decisions they are interested in what winning can be attributed to decisions. Specifically, they say that winning can be attributed to a decision if it was caused by that decision. In response to NP, the CDTer notes that the agent’s overall winning is not a good guide to the winning decision as in this case, the agent’s winning it also determined by factors other than their decisions (that is, the winning cannot be attributed to the agent’s decision). Further, because the agent’s winnings correlate with their decisions, even though it can’t be attributed to their decisions, the case can be particularly misleading when trying to determine the winning decisions.
Now this second view may be both false and may be playing the wrong game but it at least gives the CDTer a fair hearing in a way that the first view doesn’t.
Interesting. I have a better grasp of what you’re saying now (or maybe not what you’re saying, but why someone might think that what you are saying is true). Rapid responses to information that needs digesting are unhelpful so I have nothing further to say for now (though I still think my original post goes some way to explaining the opinions of those on LW that haven’t thought in detail about decision theory: a focus on algorithm rather than decisions means that people think one-boxing is rational even if they don’t agree with your claims about focusing on logical rather than causal consequences [and for these people, the disagreement with CDT is only apparent]).
ETA: On the CDT bit, which I can comment on, I think you overstate how “increasingly contorted” the CDTers “redefinitions of winning” are. They focus on whether the decision has the best causal consequences. This is hardly contorted (it’s fairly straightforward) and doesn’t seem to be much of a redefinition: if you’re focusing on “winning decisions” as the CDTer does (rather than “winning agents”) it seems to me that the causal consequences are the most natural way of separating out the part of the agent’s winning relates to the decision from the parts that relate to the agent more generally. As a definition of a winning decision, I think the definition used on LW is more revisionary than the CDTers definition (as a definition of winning algorithm or agent, the definition on LW seems natural but as a way of separating out the part of the agent’s winning that relate to the decision, logical consequences seems far more revisionary). In other words, everyone agrees what winning means. What people disagree about is when we can attribute the winningness to the decision rather than to some other factor and I think the CDTer takes the natural line here (which isn’t to say they’re right but I think the accusations of “contorted” definitions are unreasonable).